5 ms·
It gives actual insight into prognosticators' accuracy. If their 90%s are right about nine times out of ten, their 60%s six out of ten, and so on, then they're
by maw 5y ago
It gives actual insight into prognosticators' accuracy. If their 90%s are right about nine times out of ten, their 60%s six out of ten, and so on, then they're pretty good. If they're not then they're not.
- smitty1e 5y agoSubjective certainty is not objective accuracy. Throwing out percentages without methodology and test data bolstering that methodology amounts to persuasion.
- whatshisface 5y agoA prediction with no indication of subjective certainty is not a prediction.