Let us also note the utter lack of precision in this argument. The only date provided has to do with another round of conscripts on April 1st which is 17 days

Let us also note the utter lack of precision in this argument. The only date provided has to do with another round of conscripts on April 1st which is 17 days out. The author just makes a lot of hand-wavy arguments about various logistics issues Russia is possibly (or even likely) experiencing. That's not really solid grounds to make a specific 10-day prediction.