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An incredibly good investment for anyone that can afford it in the USA is a house. The government subsidizes your mortgage by fixing the rate. As inflation incr

An incredibly good investment for anyone that can afford it in the USA is a house. The government subsidizes your mortgage by fixing the rate. As inflation increases rents, you pay the same amount. It’s an amazing handout for even the slightly wealthy.

arcticbull 5y ago
It actually depends on a ton of factors. [1] How long you plan to stay there, opportunity cost of capital, annual salary, deductions, inflation, taxes, closing costs, HOAs, maintenance, etc. It can be! But it isn't always. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-cal...
- seibelj 5y ago
  At some point you need to make a decision in life. I myself am self-made wealthy and I didn’t do that by putting all my money in index funds and renting. Have conviction - put down roots - commit.
  - arcticbull 5y ago
    It's interesting that you say that, I've also done quite well for myself, and I was in a position to risk more because I hadn't committed all my free capital to a down payment on a mortgage. In fact, at that time, I wouldn't have been able to afford a place I actually wanted to live in anyways. Putting down roots doesn't mean owning a property you don't want to, and being unable to then expose yourself to more interesting risks due to being house-poor. This is of course equally anecdotal, which is why I think folks would do well to review the NYT calculator to evaluate the specifics of their situation :) Risk is good! I'm a big fan of risk. However, a house won't go up more than a few points a year. That's never going to be life changing money. The opportunity cost of the down payment making you unable to early exercise some startup equity could on the other hand leave you pretty full of regret.
    - seibelj 5y ago
      In the US you can put 5% down and lock in your monthly payment forever. This is because the government subsidizes this. It’s an incredible trade and that’s why any attempts at reform are lobbied so aggressively.
      - blitzar 5y ago
        The 'trade' in all this is not the appreciation of house price. Housing is a middling performing, high maintenance cost, depreciating asset. However, you can borrow against it cheaper than virtually any other asset in existence at absurd leverage ratios - and swap your cash flow for the ownership of the asset. So long as interest rates are at or below growth / inflation / or your salary increases - it is a good investment.
    - pengaru 5y ago
      > The opportunity cost of the down payment making you unable to early exercise some startup equity could on the other hand leave you pretty full of regret. Startup equity of the kind that produces fuck you-money returns shouldn't cost that much to early exercise since it's usually early stage, that's kind of the whole point of early exercise and filing the 83b before the imaginary value goes up in subsequent funding rounds. When it's late stage enough for exercising to cost a pile of money, people usually don't bother with exercising and simply wait for a liquidity event to occur, assuming accelerated vesting will accompany it, and pay the exercise cost and taxes directly from the shares AIUI. But I suppose it's nice to be able to exercise and leave if you wanted to before a liquidity event, since the options tend to expire in what... 90 days? Preserving that option with a pile of cash on hand is useful, handcuffs are annoying regardless of their color.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
  - AnthonyMouse 5y ago
    It's not about roots. Especially now, there's a risk the Fed may raise interest rates to counter inflation which could negatively impact asset prices. And mortgaging a house is leverage. If you put your money in stocks and they go down 15%, you lose 15% of your money. If you plonk a 15% downpayment on a house and the house loses 15% of its value, you get zeroed out. No guarantee that happens right now, but it sure could.
    - seibelj 5y ago
      I have a lot of investments but my property has been both a winner and something accessible to even non-wealthy people because of the socialized costs. Highly recommend property to everyone.
      - AnthonyMouse 5y ago
        In general the "people are born short a house" thing is true. Buying a house at some point in your life is a good idea. At this moment we're in a housing bubble inflated by low interest rates that may or may not be about to end. The risk is different than it usually is.
        seibelj 5y ago
        Shelter is something you need. If you rent, the cost rises with inflation. With the US government, taxpayers effectively pay the inflation for you. The laws of the USA subsidize your property to make it artificially cheaper. I can’t imagine a better deal for someone with enough money for a down payment.
        AnthonyMouse 5y ago
        The US subsidizes it and then artificially constrains the housing supply through zoning, so the subsidies just inflate the purchase price and go to the banks as interest on higher principal or to the people who owned property when the subsidies were first implemented. The ROI is attributable to the supply constraint in the face of population growth, not the subsidies. If housing supply wasn't constrained the subsidies would lower the initial cost but then it wouldn't work as an investment because the real value would never go up since if it did that would cause an increase in supply through new construction. But that's also what makes it a pyramid scheme. More people bidding on the same amount of housing makes the price go up, but only if the population grows. Fertility rate tells a bad story there. And on top of that it's per-city; ask people who had homes in Detroit. Someday this is all going to fall apart. I don't know when it's going to be though.
- refurb 5y ago
  I’m kinda shocked youre downvoted, this is a very reasonable take. Real estate can be a great investment, but it has very high transaction costs, is not diversified at all (real estate is entirely local), and has high maintenance costs.
m0llusk 5y ago
Home ownership makes people poor by discouraging moves to optimize opportunities. Additionally, this prolonged period of high house price appreciation is an anomaly that cannot be sustained. House prices are supported by incomes which are not growing at the same high rates. Historically houses are depreciating assets because critical components such as the roof and essential utilities like plumbing require regular maintenance and replacement at intervals between 15-50 years depending on durability and conditions.

arcticbull 5y ago

It actually depends on a ton of factors. [1] How long you plan to stay there, opportunity cost of capital, annual salary, deductions, inflation, taxes, closing costs, HOAs, maintenance, etc. It can be! But it isn't always. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-cal...

seibelj 5y ago
At some point you need to make a decision in life. I myself am self-made wealthy and I didn’t do that by putting all my money in index funds and renting. Have conviction - put down roots - commit.
- arcticbull 5y ago
  It's interesting that you say that, I've also done quite well for myself, and I was in a position to risk more because I hadn't committed all my free capital to a down payment on a mortgage. In fact, at that time, I wouldn't have been able to afford a place I actually wanted to live in anyways. Putting down roots doesn't mean owning a property you don't want to, and being unable to then expose yourself to more interesting risks due to being house-poor. This is of course equally anecdotal, which is why I think folks would do well to review the NYT calculator to evaluate the specifics of their situation :) Risk is good! I'm a big fan of risk. However, a house won't go up more than a few points a year. That's never going to be life changing money. The opportunity cost of the down payment making you unable to early exercise some startup equity could on the other hand leave you pretty full of regret.
  - seibelj 5y ago
    In the US you can put 5% down and lock in your monthly payment forever. This is because the government subsidizes this. It’s an incredible trade and that’s why any attempts at reform are lobbied so aggressively.
    - blitzar 5y ago
      The 'trade' in all this is not the appreciation of house price. Housing is a middling performing, high maintenance cost, depreciating asset. However, you can borrow against it cheaper than virtually any other asset in existence at absurd leverage ratios - and swap your cash flow for the ownership of the asset. So long as interest rates are at or below growth / inflation / or your salary increases - it is a good investment.
  - pengaru 5y ago
    > The opportunity cost of the down payment making you unable to early exercise some startup equity could on the other hand leave you pretty full of regret. Startup equity of the kind that produces fuck you-money returns shouldn't cost that much to early exercise since it's usually early stage, that's kind of the whole point of early exercise and filing the 83b before the imaginary value goes up in subsequent funding rounds. When it's late stage enough for exercising to cost a pile of money, people usually don't bother with exercising and simply wait for a liquidity event to occur, assuming accelerated vesting will accompany it, and pay the exercise cost and taxes directly from the shares AIUI. But I suppose it's nice to be able to exercise and leave if you wanted to before a liquidity event, since the options tend to expire in what... 90 days? Preserving that option with a pile of cash on hand is useful, handcuffs are annoying regardless of their color.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
- AnthonyMouse 5y ago
  It's not about roots. Especially now, there's a risk the Fed may raise interest rates to counter inflation which could negatively impact asset prices. And mortgaging a house is leverage. If you put your money in stocks and they go down 15%, you lose 15% of your money. If you plonk a 15% downpayment on a house and the house loses 15% of its value, you get zeroed out. No guarantee that happens right now, but it sure could.
  - seibelj 5y ago
    I have a lot of investments but my property has been both a winner and something accessible to even non-wealthy people because of the socialized costs. Highly recommend property to everyone.
    - AnthonyMouse 5y ago
      In general the "people are born short a house" thing is true. Buying a house at some point in your life is a good idea. At this moment we're in a housing bubble inflated by low interest rates that may or may not be about to end. The risk is different than it usually is.
      - seibelj 5y ago
        Shelter is something you need. If you rent, the cost rises with inflation. With the US government, taxpayers effectively pay the inflation for you. The laws of the USA subsidize your property to make it artificially cheaper. I can’t imagine a better deal for someone with enough money for a down payment.
        AnthonyMouse 5y ago
        The US subsidizes it and then artificially constrains the housing supply through zoning, so the subsidies just inflate the purchase price and go to the banks as interest on higher principal or to the people who owned property when the subsidies were first implemented. The ROI is attributable to the supply constraint in the face of population growth, not the subsidies. If housing supply wasn't constrained the subsidies would lower the initial cost but then it wouldn't work as an investment because the real value would never go up since if it did that would cause an increase in supply through new construction. But that's also what makes it a pyramid scheme. More people bidding on the same amount of housing makes the price go up, but only if the population grows. Fertility rate tells a bad story there. And on top of that it's per-city; ask people who had homes in Detroit. Someday this is all going to fall apart. I don't know when it's going to be though.
refurb 5y ago
I’m kinda shocked youre downvoted, this is a very reasonable take. Real estate can be a great investment, but it has very high transaction costs, is not diversified at all (real estate is entirely local), and has high maintenance costs.

m0llusk 5y ago

Home ownership makes people poor by discouraging moves to optimize opportunities. Additionally, this prolonged period of high house price appreciation is an anomaly that cannot be sustained. House prices are supported by incomes which are not growing at the same high rates. Historically houses are depreciating assets because critical components such as the roof and essential utilities like plumbing require regular maintenance and replacement at intervals between 15-50 years depending on durability and conditions.