6 ms·

It's quite a coincidence that the numerous complicated factors all started causing inflation at about the same time as the government printing tons of additiona

It's quite a coincidence that the numerous complicated factors all started causing inflation at about the same time as the government printing tons of additional money. Also a coincidence that the confluence of the ineffable complex factors had the same effect that a naive person would imagine printing a lot of money would have.

forum_ghost 5y ago
it's almost like "complex reasons" is simply obscurantism.
mohanmcgeek 5y ago
You seem to imply that the supply chain issue and the resultant inflation would not have happened had your government not borrowed so much? What's more likely: - Prices went up because there was a short supply of tangible things that actually (somewhat) respect the supply-demand curve OR - Prices went up because there was an "excess supply" of money from "printing" that arguably does not respect the supply-demand curve
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > the supply chain issue and the resultant inflation would not have happened had your government not borrowed so much? Probably not. Instead, we’d be in a depression amidst mass unemployment and bankruptcies.
  - mohanmcgeek 5y ago
    So this supply chain crunch would have still happened but people would not have noticed it while dealing with much bigger problems such as unemployment.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
      > this supply chain crunch would have still happened but people would not have noticed it while dealing with much bigger problems such as unemployment Supply chain would have crunched but the demand fueling inflation would have been destroyed. Instead, we maintained both demand and production while the supply chains falter. (For the most part. Egregious stand-outs in destroyed production capacity are the automotive and rental-car industries.)
- AnthonyMouse 5y ago
  Printing does respect the supply-demand curve in nominal dollars. It increases demand in nominal dollars.
  - mohanmcgeek 5y ago
    Anybody making this claim should also explain how the government goes about "printing" money The government doesn't create money.
    - AnthonyMouse 5y ago
      How do you mean the government doesn't create money? The Federal Reserve Bank creates money. Sometimes literally by physically printing it, but more often by crediting someone's account in their computers. When the Fed "sets interest rates" on bonds, it buys bonds on the market using computer money it credits the seller's account with which it created out of nothing. Ordinary banks also create money when they make loans, which gets destroyed again when the loans are repaid. More money is created this way when interest rates are lower because people take out more loans then.
      - mohanmcgeek 5y ago
        > The Federal Reserve Bank creates money So not the government. > When the Fed "sets interest rates" on bonds It doesn't set the interest rates on treasury bonds. They set a target and engage in the market to get the price to that level. Still a private entity doing private things. Not the government > Sometimes literally by physically printing it, but more often by crediting someone's account in their computers Definitely not! > More money is created this way when interest rates are lower because people take out more loans then. This is the only way money is created. The previous paragraph is far from how anything works.
        AnthonyMouse 5y ago
        > So not the government. The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States. Its board is nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate. It's the government. Politicians sometimes like to pretend it's not so they don't get blamed for unpopular choices. > It doesn't set the interest rates on treasury bonds. They set a target and engage in the market to get the price to that level That's what setting interest rates means. > Definitely not! Where do you think coins and federal reserve notes come from?
- nightski 5y ago
  Are you implying that more money does not increase demand?
  - mohanmcgeek 5y ago
    Yes. It doesn't. Not only that: the government cannot and does not create money.
randomopining 5y ago
How is it ineffable when he just described one? Of course gov printing had an effect, but supply chain is prob the biggest. Do you not agree?
- mobilewatch7 5y ago
  Supply chain crisis is to some degree a symptom of the monetary expansion
- emerged 5y ago
  I wonder if massive piles of free money could have had something to do with people demanding more supplies from the chain.
  - randomopining 5y ago
    Yeah definitely not a huge demand drop, followed by a normalization/huge increase of demand - bottlenecking most of the supply chain and causing those willing to pay more to get delivery priority. Like Americans couldn’t afford their $25 plastic widgets before, and now because of gubmint stimulus they’re able to finally buy those widgets. Lol. Cars is a perfect proof of my case. They thought covid would hurt demand for awhile, didn’t book enough chips. And then boom demand spike back and they don’t have a needed input in time. Thus people go to secondary market — used prices up a ton.
shkkmo 5y ago
It's naive to pretend that when supply goes down and demand goes up, prices don't go up as a direct result. Printing money also causes prices to go up, as does war. Anyone thinking that the problem was that we didn't give people enough money, hasn't taken a look at the explosion in homeless population throughout the country. People are still hurting and it is obscene ti complain that your savings account is worth slightly less when people don't have have a roof over their heads due to the worst pandemic in a century.
- torstenvl 5y ago
  1982—present is within the last century and has had a death toll of 36.3 million so far. I think your position could improve from some grounding and perspective.
  - valleyer 5y ago
    (You seem to be referencing the AIDS pandemic.) In terms of deaths per year, that's far smaller than COVID-19, whose death toll over two years probably lies somewhere between the 6 million official number and the over 20 million "excess deaths" counted by The Economist. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
  - shkkmo 5y ago
    You'd possibly have a point if we were discussing long term medical research h funding priorities. We aren't. We are discussing acute economic phenomena. It that context, covid it absolutely the worst pandemic in a century.
    - torstenvl 5y ago
      *had the worst government economic response to a pandemic in a century
caf 5y ago
It seems to me I've seen comments here complaining about "the government printing tons of additional money" for at least the last decade.
- lamp987 5y ago
  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?width=880&height=440&id=M1SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?width=880&he...
  - goldenkey 5y ago
    I don't think the best climbers in the world can scale that cliff.
  - mediumdeviation 5y ago
    This is somewhat misleading - the definition of M1 was changed in May 2020, so numbers before and after are not directly comparable. See https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/05/savings-are-now-more-liquid-and-part-of-m1-money/ https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/05/savings-are-now-more.... It’s best to link directly to the page which is interactive and describes the actual components of M1 instead of just the image https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL
    - blitzar 5y ago
      Also that is the fed and M1 doesnt really have anything to do with money printing anyway - fed balance sheet is where it is at https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/central-bank-balance-sheet https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/central-bank-bala... This is the government - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S - and for anyone wondering, your party is as bad as the other party
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
MagnumOpus 5y ago
> It's quite a coincidence that the numerous complicated factors all started causing inflation at about the same time as the government printing tons of additional money It's not a coincidence, both have been caused by the same pandemic that you might have forgotten about. To provide a natural experiment that should refute the point you imply: inflation went up massively in nearly every country on earth as they were all hit by the same supply side issues. Only a small minority of these countries "printed a lot of money" let alone as much as the US of A.

forum_ghost 5y ago

it's almost like "complex reasons" is simply obscurantism.

mohanmcgeek 5y ago

You seem to imply that the supply chain issue and the resultant inflation would not have happened had your government not borrowed so much? What's more likely: - Prices went up because there was a short supply of tangible things that actually (somewhat) respect the supply-demand curve OR - Prices went up because there was an "excess supply" of money from "printing" that arguably does not respect the supply-demand curve

JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> the supply chain issue and the resultant inflation would not have happened had your government not borrowed so much? Probably not. Instead, we’d be in a depression amidst mass unemployment and bankruptcies.
- mohanmcgeek 5y ago
  So this supply chain crunch would have still happened but people would not have noticed it while dealing with much bigger problems such as unemployment.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
    > this supply chain crunch would have still happened but people would not have noticed it while dealing with much bigger problems such as unemployment Supply chain would have crunched but the demand fueling inflation would have been destroyed. Instead, we maintained both demand and production while the supply chains falter. (For the most part. Egregious stand-outs in destroyed production capacity are the automotive and rental-car industries.)
AnthonyMouse 5y ago
Printing does respect the supply-demand curve in nominal dollars. It increases demand in nominal dollars.
- mohanmcgeek 5y ago
  Anybody making this claim should also explain how the government goes about "printing" money The government doesn't create money.
  - AnthonyMouse 5y ago
    How do you mean the government doesn't create money? The Federal Reserve Bank creates money. Sometimes literally by physically printing it, but more often by crediting someone's account in their computers. When the Fed "sets interest rates" on bonds, it buys bonds on the market using computer money it credits the seller's account with which it created out of nothing. Ordinary banks also create money when they make loans, which gets destroyed again when the loans are repaid. More money is created this way when interest rates are lower because people take out more loans then.
    - mohanmcgeek 5y ago
      > The Federal Reserve Bank creates money So not the government. > When the Fed "sets interest rates" on bonds It doesn't set the interest rates on treasury bonds. They set a target and engage in the market to get the price to that level. Still a private entity doing private things. Not the government > Sometimes literally by physically printing it, but more often by crediting someone's account in their computers Definitely not! > More money is created this way when interest rates are lower because people take out more loans then. This is the only way money is created. The previous paragraph is far from how anything works.
      - AnthonyMouse 5y ago
        > So not the government. The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States. Its board is nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate. It's the government. Politicians sometimes like to pretend it's not so they don't get blamed for unpopular choices. > It doesn't set the interest rates on treasury bonds. They set a target and engage in the market to get the price to that level That's what setting interest rates means. > Definitely not! Where do you think coins and federal reserve notes come from?
nightski 5y ago
Are you implying that more money does not increase demand?
- mohanmcgeek 5y ago
  Yes. It doesn't. Not only that: the government cannot and does not create money.

randomopining 5y ago

How is it ineffable when he just described one? Of course gov printing had an effect, but supply chain is prob the biggest. Do you not agree?

mobilewatch7 5y ago
Supply chain crisis is to some degree a symptom of the monetary expansion
emerged 5y ago
I wonder if massive piles of free money could have had something to do with people demanding more supplies from the chain.
- randomopining 5y ago
  Yeah definitely not a huge demand drop, followed by a normalization/huge increase of demand - bottlenecking most of the supply chain and causing those willing to pay more to get delivery priority. Like Americans couldn’t afford their $25 plastic widgets before, and now because of gubmint stimulus they’re able to finally buy those widgets. Lol. Cars is a perfect proof of my case. They thought covid would hurt demand for awhile, didn’t book enough chips. And then boom demand spike back and they don’t have a needed input in time. Thus people go to secondary market — used prices up a ton.

shkkmo 5y ago

It's naive to pretend that when supply goes down and demand goes up, prices don't go up as a direct result. Printing money also causes prices to go up, as does war. Anyone thinking that the problem was that we didn't give people enough money, hasn't taken a look at the explosion in homeless population throughout the country. People are still hurting and it is obscene ti complain that your savings account is worth slightly less when people don't have have a roof over their heads due to the worst pandemic in a century.

torstenvl 5y ago
1982—present is within the last century and has had a death toll of 36.3 million so far. I think your position could improve from some grounding and perspective.
- valleyer 5y ago
  (You seem to be referencing the AIDS pandemic.) In terms of deaths per year, that's far smaller than COVID-19, whose death toll over two years probably lies somewhere between the 6 million official number and the over 20 million "excess deaths" counted by The Economist. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- shkkmo 5y ago
  You'd possibly have a point if we were discussing long term medical research h funding priorities. We aren't. We are discussing acute economic phenomena. It that context, covid it absolutely the worst pandemic in a century.
  - torstenvl 5y ago
    *had the worst government economic response to a pandemic in a century

caf 5y ago

It seems to me I've seen comments here complaining about "the government printing tons of additional money" for at least the last decade.

lamp987 5y ago
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?width=880&height=440&id=M1SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?width=880&he...
- goldenkey 5y ago
  I don't think the best climbers in the world can scale that cliff.
- mediumdeviation 5y ago
  This is somewhat misleading - the definition of M1 was changed in May 2020, so numbers before and after are not directly comparable. See https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/05/savings-are-now-more-liquid-and-part-of-m1-money/ https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/05/savings-are-now-more.... It’s best to link directly to the page which is interactive and describes the actual components of M1 instead of just the image https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL
  - blitzar 5y ago
    Also that is the fed and M1 doesnt really have anything to do with money printing anyway - fed balance sheet is where it is at https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/central-bank-balance-sheet https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/central-bank-bala... This is the government - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S - and for anyone wondering, your party is as bad as the other party
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]

MagnumOpus 5y ago

> It's quite a coincidence that the numerous complicated factors all started causing inflation at about the same time as the government printing tons of additional money It's not a coincidence, both have been caused by the same pandemic that you might have forgotten about. To provide a natural experiment that should refute the point you imply: inflation went up massively in nearly every country on earth as they were all hit by the same supply side issues. Only a small minority of these countries "printed a lot of money" let alone as much as the US of A.