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I doubt incompetence from the Polish government was all that unexpected by the other members of NATO. Nor would I consider worldwide banking sanctions within a

I doubt incompetence from the Polish government was all that unexpected by the other members of NATO. Nor would I consider worldwide banking sanctions within a week “flat-footed”. I do agree we live in interesting times, and perhaps the the great Chthulhu will be joining us shortly.

wahern 5y ago
From what I've read the fumble was the result of a difference of opinion and poor communication between the U.S. State Department (more aggressive) and the Pentagon (more risk averse). Poland just got caught in the middle. EDIT: The second instance of being flat-footed I was referring to was entering intense diplomatic dialogue with China in an attempt to get them to avoid making any concrete commitments, and then discovering (based on direct and indirect feedback during talks) that China is already much further down that road than we assumed.
- labster 5y ago
  Poor communication on the US side wouldn’t explain Poland’s “we are sending expensive war materiel via this specific location (Rus pls don’t intercept lol XD)” announcement.
  - wahern 5y ago
    That only adds to the mess. The bigger unforced error is the apparent U.S. waffling. Firm, consistent messaging regarding refusal (so far) to send jets would have been far more powerful than what ended up happening.
  - Isinlor 5y ago
    I don't think there is any difference from operational security perspective. Russians would know very well that MiGs are flying from Poland no matter whether they would go trough Germany or not. And they would have to track them precisely in order to attack in both cases as well. The stupid part was going with the MiGs transfer public in the first place back at the beginning of the war. But I recall it came from EU official and Ukrainians, not from Polish government directly.
rasz 5y ago
You call correctly reading US internal politics incompetence from the Polish government?

wahern 5y ago

From what I've read the fumble was the result of a difference of opinion and poor communication between the U.S. State Department (more aggressive) and the Pentagon (more risk averse). Poland just got caught in the middle. EDIT: The second instance of being flat-footed I was referring to was entering intense diplomatic dialogue with China in an attempt to get them to avoid making any concrete commitments, and then discovering (based on direct and indirect feedback during talks) that China is already much further down that road than we assumed.

labster 5y ago
Poor communication on the US side wouldn’t explain Poland’s “we are sending expensive war materiel via this specific location (Rus pls don’t intercept lol XD)” announcement.
- wahern 5y ago
  That only adds to the mess. The bigger unforced error is the apparent U.S. waffling. Firm, consistent messaging regarding refusal (so far) to send jets would have been far more powerful than what ended up happening.
- Isinlor 5y ago
  I don't think there is any difference from operational security perspective. Russians would know very well that MiGs are flying from Poland no matter whether they would go trough Germany or not. And they would have to track them precisely in order to attack in both cases as well. The stupid part was going with the MiGs transfer public in the first place back at the beginning of the war. But I recall it came from EU official and Ukrainians, not from Polish government directly.

rasz 5y ago

You call correctly reading US internal politics incompetence from the Polish government?