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> Like the rest of the world, China is evaluating its exposure to Russia in the aftermath of global condemnation of the Ukrainian invasion. They’re approaching

by wahern 5y ago

> Like the rest of the world, China is evaluating its exposure to Russia in the aftermath of global condemnation of the Ukrainian invasion. They’re approaching the newly-sanctioned Russia with a degree of conservatism. As of today, it is not eager to deepen commercial linkages to Russian crude. This assessment may be out-of-date considering that as of today its been revealed that China has already firmly committed to providing material and logistical support to Russia in Ukraine. Not only does it reinforce China's apparent resolve and risk appetite, it's the second time in a week the Western alliance has been caught flat-footed (the first was the MiG-29 transfer debacle), necessitating a significant compensating move to restore pressure. Stars keep aligning in all the wrong ways. Arguably the world's major powers haven't been so squarely aligned in opposition to each other since the Korean War. It seems we now have Europe, the Anglosphere, and Japan against Russia and China.

abalashov 5y ago
I would be surprised if the Chinese aid to Russia were anything but symbolic. The continuation of this war and the tensions with the West are not in the Chinese interest.
- wahern 5y ago
  Or we could take both the intelligence reports and China's pronouncements at face value. COVID-19 has already tremendously disrupted trade, and Trump's earlier trade war helped reveal both the extent and the cost of reduced trade flows. China could easily have come to the assessment, in light of both situations, that the U.S. has much more to lose than does China, especially while China is still in the midst of COVID-19 self-isolation. They may simply have decided to call our bluff, just like they did with Trump. (This is the risk with flippantly showing all your cards.) Similarly, a world economic order with a diminished US dollar is to China's advantage, so China may see this as a potentially favorable strategic inflection point. Either way, it all just adds more kindling. The momentum is definitely building in the wrong direction, which sadly has been the consistent pattern over the past 3 weeks.
labster 5y ago
I doubt incompetence from the Polish government was all that unexpected by the other members of NATO. Nor would I consider worldwide banking sanctions within a week “flat-footed”. I do agree we live in interesting times, and perhaps the the great Chthulhu will be joining us shortly.
- wahern 5y ago
  From what I've read the fumble was the result of a difference of opinion and poor communication between the U.S. State Department (more aggressive) and the Pentagon (more risk averse). Poland just got caught in the middle. EDIT: The second instance of being flat-footed I was referring to was entering intense diplomatic dialogue with China in an attempt to get them to avoid making any concrete commitments, and then discovering (based on direct and indirect feedback during talks) that China is already much further down that road than we assumed.
  - labster 5y ago
    Poor communication on the US side wouldn’t explain Poland’s “we are sending expensive war materiel via this specific location (Rus pls don’t intercept lol XD)” announcement.
    - wahern 5y ago
      That only adds to the mess. The bigger unforced error is the apparent U.S. waffling. Firm, consistent messaging regarding refusal (so far) to send jets would have been far more powerful than what ended up happening.
    - Isinlor 5y ago
      I don't think there is any difference from operational security perspective. Russians would know very well that MiGs are flying from Poland no matter whether they would go trough Germany or not. And they would have to track them precisely in order to attack in both cases as well. The stupid part was going with the MiGs transfer public in the first place back at the beginning of the war. But I recall it came from EU official and Ukrainians, not from Polish government directly.
darksaints 5y ago
> Europe, the Anglosphere, and Japan against Russia and China. Don't forget Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Syria, Belarus, and a couple of 'stans. Fiona Hill is right: World War III has already started, we just haven't accepted it yet.
ep103 5y ago
Can I get a link on China's announcement today? I'm not seeing anything in google

by wahern 5y ago

abalashov 5y ago

I would be surprised if the Chinese aid to Russia were anything but symbolic. The continuation of this war and the tensions with the West are not in the Chinese interest.

wahern 5y ago
Or we could take both the intelligence reports and China's pronouncements at face value. COVID-19 has already tremendously disrupted trade, and Trump's earlier trade war helped reveal both the extent and the cost of reduced trade flows. China could easily have come to the assessment, in light of both situations, that the U.S. has much more to lose than does China, especially while China is still in the midst of COVID-19 self-isolation. They may simply have decided to call our bluff, just like they did with Trump. (This is the risk with flippantly showing all your cards.) Similarly, a world economic order with a diminished US dollar is to China's advantage, so China may see this as a potentially favorable strategic inflection point. Either way, it all just adds more kindling. The momentum is definitely building in the wrong direction, which sadly has been the consistent pattern over the past 3 weeks.

labster 5y ago

I doubt incompetence from the Polish government was all that unexpected by the other members of NATO. Nor would I consider worldwide banking sanctions within a week “flat-footed”. I do agree we live in interesting times, and perhaps the the great Chthulhu will be joining us shortly.

wahern 5y ago
From what I've read the fumble was the result of a difference of opinion and poor communication between the U.S. State Department (more aggressive) and the Pentagon (more risk averse). Poland just got caught in the middle. EDIT: The second instance of being flat-footed I was referring to was entering intense diplomatic dialogue with China in an attempt to get them to avoid making any concrete commitments, and then discovering (based on direct and indirect feedback during talks) that China is already much further down that road than we assumed.
- labster 5y ago
  Poor communication on the US side wouldn’t explain Poland’s “we are sending expensive war materiel via this specific location (Rus pls don’t intercept lol XD)” announcement.
  - wahern 5y ago
    That only adds to the mess. The bigger unforced error is the apparent U.S. waffling. Firm, consistent messaging regarding refusal (so far) to send jets would have been far more powerful than what ended up happening.
  - Isinlor 5y ago
    I don't think there is any difference from operational security perspective. Russians would know very well that MiGs are flying from Poland no matter whether they would go trough Germany or not. And they would have to track them precisely in order to attack in both cases as well. The stupid part was going with the MiGs transfer public in the first place back at the beginning of the war. But I recall it came from EU official and Ukrainians, not from Polish government directly.

darksaints 5y ago

> Europe, the Anglosphere, and Japan against Russia and China. Don't forget Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Syria, Belarus, and a couple of 'stans. Fiona Hill is right: World War III has already started, we just haven't accepted it yet.

ep103 5y ago

Can I get a link on China's announcement today? I'm not seeing anything in google