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Read the whole thing. Going long nattie gas as we speak. Seems like the only conclusive thing is to buy all commodities right now. We're only at the beginning.
by anonu 5y ago
Read the whole thing. Going long nattie gas as we speak. Seems like the only conclusive thing is to buy all commodities right now. We're only at the beginning.
- AnimalMuppet 5y agoIf you're going to do that (and beware that it's a way that amateurs can lose their shirts), then think about sequence. Steel, for example, may lag natural gas by some time period (I don't know how much). I guess that food will lag the farthest, but I don't know by how much.
- cinntaile 5y agoThe easiest is probably to just buy a fund with all commodities, then you don't have to figure any of that out.
- elil17 5y agoYou’re right that we’re probably only at the beginning. However, commodity trading is a bad idea for most people because it has an “expected value” of zero (unlike stocks and bonds, which have positive average returns). It’s very useful if you’re using it to hedge against increases in the price of commodity you consume.
- anonu 5y agoEV of 0? Are you assuming you're leveraged 50 to 1?
- throwaway_4ever 5y agoThey either mean commodities long term have 0% real returns, or that the “contango” of holding commodities as an asset means long term the asset's worth becomes 0 (high expense and 0% real return)
- 55555 5y agoThey mean zero sum or negative sum.