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Think about a hypothetical strategy to use ground forces - fully avoiding to escalate to a nuclear war - to actually assault baltic NATO countries. You just can

Think about a hypothetical strategy to use ground forces - fully avoiding to escalate to a nuclear war - to actually assault baltic NATO countries. You just can't deploy massive russian forces to the NATO's frontier without triggering countermeasures. But, if you massively deploy troops into Ukraine, simulating it is the target, then you start to pump troops, hardware, infrastructure for the actual invasion, NATO has to operate necessarily under the premise Russia isn't there to attack NATO, then it cannot massively deploy reinforcements to baltic members. They are by any military measure - except nuclear deterrence - undefendant. Russian generals just have to sustain the maskirovka enough time to build up a sufficiently capable strike force to attack, basically a replay of the first movement against Ukraine. Then they could be in position to attack Poland, unbalancing NATO, triggering a defensive position in this country, then russians could invade the baltic states ("recovering" the whole old Eastern Europe of URSS age), Then they could just abandon Poland, fastly signing an armistice but retaining the baltic states. Europe as a whole probably will just sign the accords, in order to prevent a full nuclear escalation. Game over. NATO has lost.

muzika 5y ago
It’s scary that this is quite a possibility at this point.
zaphirplane 5y ago
A military with that logistics, capabilities and equipment would have wrapped up the invasion by now.
ladyattis 5y ago
Nope, this isn't in the cards. Russia has effectively mustered all they want to spend on war into Ukraine. To redeploy or muster more soldiers would take a year and likely that would be detected by intelligence operatives. Hell, just watching from space you would see the training camps. It's not like you can hide them in the equivalent of a Planet Fitness or big box store for an entire year to train and outfit them. And that's just infantry. You'd likely need trucks and the Russia armed forces are focused on trains which as we've seen with Ukraine is their biggest weakness. Just blow up the switches and fall back to more defensible positions and let the Russians wear themselves out.

muzika 5y ago

It’s scary that this is quite a possibility at this point.

zaphirplane 5y ago

A military with that logistics, capabilities and equipment would have wrapped up the invasion by now.

ladyattis 5y ago

Nope, this isn't in the cards. Russia has effectively mustered all they want to spend on war into Ukraine. To redeploy or muster more soldiers would take a year and likely that would be detected by intelligence operatives. Hell, just watching from space you would see the training camps. It's not like you can hide them in the equivalent of a Planet Fitness or big box store for an entire year to train and outfit them. And that's just infantry. You'd likely need trucks and the Russia armed forces are focused on trains which as we've seen with Ukraine is their biggest weakness. Just blow up the switches and fall back to more defensible positions and let the Russians wear themselves out.