4 ms·
I think it smells like WW3, although not for the emotional reasons the article cites. This terrible situation kind of rhymes with the Axis powers practising on
by smackeyacky 5y ago
I think it smells like WW3, although not for the emotional reasons the article cites. This terrible situation kind of rhymes with the Axis powers practising on less well defended countries before going for their actual targets.
The major problem I see with the sober analysis that "Russia won't attack NATO" is that the actors might not be rational. The whole philosophy of MAD, which kept the use of nuclear weapons in check, falls to pieces if one of the players stops acting rationally.
That's not to say I buy the ruminations that Putin has gone crazy, but in an era where you can nestle yourself in any truth you please, it's quite possible that Putin isn't using the truth that we think he is. His acts will be rational, just not rational within the framework that we are using.
One thing that might change the equation of NATO not involving itself directly is a massive humanitarian crisis. I personally think it's inevitable that a no-fly zone will be imposed once the Russians decide to use their air force properly and wipe out massive amounts of civilians while razing a major population centre. Guernica is going to be reflected in Kyiv.
Once that no-fly zone is imposed, all bets are off and escalation is inevitable. The real wildcard is what China ends up doing. They have their own expansionist plans and might use the chaos of war in Europe to accelerate them.
- granshaw 5y agoExactly. Don’t for a second buy into any notion that Putin has gone crazy - within the framework where human life has no value and the population is so placated that risk of popular revolution is small, everything he’s done sofar is completely rational.
- 2342dfagfg 5y agoI also share this, but I find it increasingly concerning. If Putin has reached the point where a very risky war has to be waged against Ukraine, it means that he had worse options than the war. What options would be that? A coup in process in Russia? Some military / oligarchic faction which already has reached the upper echelons of powers in Russia and they are forcing Putin's hand? What internal restrains could Putin still retain, for how much time? Is an escalation of hostilities in the cards? Has this already started and the whole Ukraine operations are just a maskirovka? (this last one is commonly mentioned everywhere these days, it seems everyone suspect the russians are not actually that weak and powerless to win a war, and they are just waiting for to deploy the full war machine against the actual targets). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_military_deception https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_military_deception Kind of tense wait till this ends ..or it actually start to unfold.
- smackeyacky 5y agoI'm not sure they are "weak and powerless" but it's almost certain they won't deploy their full capabilities until they work out what NATO is going to do. From NATO's point of view it's probably better to let the Russians become weaker through attrition before doing anything anyway, which truly sucks if you are Ukrainian. If the news about things like the F35 being only half operational are true, NATO might not be the overwhelming force we assume it is either. Australia is having a lot of trouble making them operational: https://theconversation.com/australia-spent-billions-on-jet-fighters-off-the-plan-now-were-having-trouble-even-flying-them-177156 https://theconversation.com/australia-spent-billions-on-jet-...