3 ms·
Just double the worst-case project ? Firstly, the plant above has costed more than 3x projected time or money, so doubling is not going to solve anything. Sec
by manquer 5y ago
Just double the worst-case project ?
Firstly, the plant above has costed more than 3x projected time or money, so doubling is not going to solve anything.
Secondly, forget civic planning, could you or I go to our companies and say just double by budget because we don't know how to plan well ? What is the guarantee our plan is at least 50% accurate ? i.e. only 2x is enough ?
Poor planning cannot be solved by increasing budget (time or money), even in non public projects, work has tendency to get expanded to meet the budget, basically if Norway had thought 2x the $3B and actually budgeted $6B, they would likely have spent $20B in the end.
All this is only for operational life of the plant, it does not even include long term costs of waste storage because no one can even model that well enough or budget for it today.
I am not saying we shouldn't do nuclear, we really should, but truly commercial plans are meaningless unless we can handle costs better, We should invest more on that, there is encouraging work in SMRs(Small Modular Reactors) that could potentially address these concerns, until then most plants are experimental high risk projects from a public plan perspective.