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The situation in Ukraine is unfortunate & Russia is squarely to blame. But there are other factors India has been calculating IMHO in keeping its long-term inte
by srvmshr 5y ago
The situation in Ukraine is unfortunate & Russia is squarely to blame. But there are other factors India has been calculating IMHO in keeping its long-term interests intact. I will add some more to the answers by <manojlds>:
Tracking diplomatic relations, US has blown hot blown cold with its strategic partners time and again. Some people are old enough to remember Donald Rumsfeld flew in meet Saddam Hussein, CIA trained Bin Laden in Yemen & Pakistan was a SEATO member with a huge military & financial backing. None of it holds today. Rather the very opposite. I think that scares Indian polity. They aren't dynamic enough to see the country as foes after enjoying decades of friendship, where they rely on US framework solely. At the same time, they feel independent enough to not be toeing the diplomatic line like S Korea or Japan for continued support. The ramifications & outcry from the Indian population can be quite severe. Western friendship has always been treated with a spoon of skepticism. This creates a terrible fix for the politicians.
That probably has been the premise why India was always gunning for NAM. They have wanted to position themselves between the two poles, maintaining cordiality & enough economic exchange. It gives them a sense of failsafe. Given their size, they see themselves as a regional power. But even today, they have to depend extensively on external support - on military & scientific projects, mainly.
Indian polity sees it in their interest to keep their ties to Russia for these reasons. They have an oversized dependence due to all the military hardware & industrial setup going back several decades. They are gradually transitioning to French, Israeli & US technology but they are still reliant on Soviet machinery in military & heavy industries (steel, shipbuilding, plastics etc.) That factors in their decision to act somewhat of a "friend in need".
EDIT: I will add in something my father, an ex-diplomat, mentioned the other day. This is chiming in the diplomatic chatter going around:
Ukraine apparently never supported India's position in several UN resolutions. From not supportong WTO-related pharma patent disputes & not endorsing India's NSG membership to not providing spares for the ageing Antonov transport equipment (instead, Russia provides the franchise version), Ukraine either was passive or voted against India. Much to India's diplomatic displeasure, they also sold & equipped Pakistan Army with T-80U tanks. When this war happened the bureaucratic / diplomatic mandarins have been non-commital about doing anything significant in support. In his words, "we aren't enemies, but Ukraine isn't a favored friend either".
EDIT2: I read some of the China related discussion. Frankly, with the border tussle, Russians have been non-committal so I don't think India is supporting Russia as a quid pro quo. In the event of any escalation, US would be more interested in keeping the balance of power in India's favor. Russians are reliant on Chinese consumption - and they know that to be the elephant in the room.