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It will be easier to isolate the different factors once things get back to something like normal. That would have to include pre-pandemic levels of traffic-law
by notacoward 5y ago
It will be easier to isolate the different factors once things get back to something like normal. That would have to include pre-pandemic levels of traffic-law enforcement, especially for speeding (e.g. multiple cars going 90-100mph on I-95 where anything over 75-80mph used to be a reliable way to get a ticket). Then we'll be better able to separate what factors contributed to the temporary "divot" in the accident-rate curve vs. what factors contributed to permanent change. All of the psychological factors, if they have any effect at all, are likely to be in the first bucket. App distractions and higher speed on emptier roads are likely to be in the second.
- noobermin 5y agoWhy do you need to wait? Why not just compare to pre-2020 levels like the cited authors do?
- notacoward 5y agoBecause some of those numbers, and the causes behind them, are likely to persist in the longer term. Many people who can work from home will continue to do so. Many services that used to require a physical visit will continue to be done via online self-service instead. That's the new baseline against which more transient factors need to be compared to get meaningful results, and we won't know what that baseline is until after things re-stabilize.