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>When will we hit a wall and where will gains in performance come from then? nm notation used to mean the width of the smallest feature that could be made. Eve
by barbacoa 5y ago
>When will we hit a wall and where will gains in performance come from then?
nm notation used to mean the width of the smallest feature that could be made. Even today there are processes such as atomic layer deposition (ALD) that allows singular atom thick features. The difference between nodes now are in shrinking macro features, you don't necessarily make them smaller, more important is density. This is currently done with 3d transistors (finfet) and perhaps in the future going full vertical. When all other optimization have been exhausted it's likely to see multiple layers of stacked transistors simulator to what they are doing with NAND memory chips. Eventually even that will hit a wall due to thermal limitations. Beyond that people have proposed using carbonnano tube transistors. That tech is very early but has been proved to function in labs. If we ever figure out how to manufacture carbon nanotubes chips, it will be truly revolutionary; you could expect at least another 50 years of semiconductor innovation.
- sharikous 5y ago> If we ever figure out how to manufacture carbon nanotubes chips That's the problem. We can't. All those technologies are in such a primordial state, if at all, that we don't even know if we will ever be able to use them efficiently 20 years from now.
- whazor 5y agoBesides shrinking and increasing size chips, there is another big problem that might cause us to hit the wall. When the transistor count increases, it also increases the amount of effort. This is a big problem because chips need to be profitable. Although if you just shrink the chips and keep the transistor count the same, then you have a more energy efficient chip. Which is especially useful for portable devices.