5 ms·

Why the west may have to offer Putin a way out

1 points by gamechangr 5y ago

gamechangr 5y ago
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/west-save-putin-russia-ukraine/627051/ https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/we... I think that unwraps the article
jacquesm 5y ago
It is interesting how articles like these are typically ignoring the fact the Ukraine is a sovereign nation - for now - and that it isn't 'The West' that has a seat at the table unless they are willing to risk more than they have been risking so far. Ukraine and Russia are the parties engaged in this war, and with Ukraine on the defense their only options are to continue to defend or to capitulate, and for Russia to declare victory and withdraw, to continue to wage war or to raise the stakes. 'The West' has nothing to offer at the moment, other than reducing the sanctions which would only embolden Putin. To deny Ukraine agency is to add insult to injury.
- s1artibartfast 5y ago
  I strongly disagree. The US and Russia have all the agency here. Ukraine is indeed a sovereign nation, but the US has full control of the arms flowing in, its ability to fight, and Ukraines NATO aspirations. The US has the power to decide if Ukraine stands or falls. The US also has the power to to give Russia some or all of what it wants. Ukraine has very little say.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    > the US has full control of the arms flowing in This is incorrect. > its ability to fight This is incorrect > Ukraines NATO aspirations This is irrelevant. > The US has the power to decide if Ukraine stands or falls The US has the power to decide if it wants to help Ukraine beyond what it has already done, and it has the power to decide if it wants to stop giving the help that it is giving right now. But it does not have the power to decide whether Ukraine stands or falls, that power lies first and foremost - unfortunately - with Russia and after that with Ukraine itself. > The US also has the power to to give Russia some or all of what it wants. No, it doesn't have that power at all. > Ukraine has very little say. That may be so but you have a pretty weird idea of how war works, and you seem to forget that Europe has a fairly large amount of influence in the region as well.
    - s1artibartfast 5y ago
      >> Ukraines NATO aspirations >This is irrelevant. >>The US also has the power to to give Russia some or all of what it wants. >No, it doesn't have that power at all. This is literally one of Russias demands, which the US has the power to unilaterally grant or deny. US arms, money, and support are necessary if Ukraine has any chance of long term success. NATO will always fall in line with US demands.
      - jacquesm 5y ago
        > This is literally one of Russias demands, which the US has the power to unilaterally grant or deny. Again, incorrect. Why do you keep saying stuff that is factually incorrect? > US arms, money, and support are necessary if Ukraine has any chance of long term success. They would certainly help, but they are not the only kind of support that Ukraine is receiving. > NATO will always fall in line with US demands. This too is incorrect. The US has not asked Ukraine to 'join NATO', it has been the other way around. Russia has been told in no uncertain terms that it isn't up to them whether or not Ukraine joins NATO, but that this is up to NATO (and it's various partners). The US is obviously a formidable player in international politics and in many ways and on many fronts it is the only player. And currently several partners in NATO have wildly different viewpoints on how to deal best with the war in Ukraine, but one thing they all seem to agree on is simply that as long as the war is limited to Ukrainian territory that they will not intervene directly. That said, NATO, and in particular Poland is already involved in quite a few ways and their decisions have a very large effect on the outcome. This stopped being about Ukraine vs Russia a while ago, the question that matters is whether or not it will spiral out of control and pull the rest of the Eastern European countries into it and how if that happens NATO will respond. And for all of the statements that have been made the proof of the pudding will be in the eating. Personally I hope that Ukraine with continued assistance from Europe and the US will hold out long enough that someone with a bit more sense will seize power in Russia, which is the best possible outcome. Failing that you may get to a point where you regret living in this particular decade. Who does or does not join NATO is utterly irrelevant compared to the stakes, and Russia can demand all it wants, as long as it does not withdraw (or at least declares a ceasefire) from Ukraine the crisis is deepening by the day.

1 points by gamechangr 5y ago

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/west-save-putin-russia-ukraine/627051/ https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/we... I think that unwraps the article

jacquesm 5y ago

It is interesting how articles like these are typically ignoring the fact the Ukraine is a sovereign nation - for now - and that it isn't 'The West' that has a seat at the table unless they are willing to risk more than they have been risking so far. Ukraine and Russia are the parties engaged in this war, and with Ukraine on the defense their only options are to continue to defend or to capitulate, and for Russia to declare victory and withdraw, to continue to wage war or to raise the stakes. 'The West' has nothing to offer at the moment, other than reducing the sanctions which would only embolden Putin. To deny Ukraine agency is to add insult to injury.

s1artibartfast 5y ago
I strongly disagree. The US and Russia have all the agency here. Ukraine is indeed a sovereign nation, but the US has full control of the arms flowing in, its ability to fight, and Ukraines NATO aspirations. The US has the power to decide if Ukraine stands or falls. The US also has the power to to give Russia some or all of what it wants. Ukraine has very little say.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  > the US has full control of the arms flowing in This is incorrect. > its ability to fight This is incorrect > Ukraines NATO aspirations This is irrelevant. > The US has the power to decide if Ukraine stands or falls The US has the power to decide if it wants to help Ukraine beyond what it has already done, and it has the power to decide if it wants to stop giving the help that it is giving right now. But it does not have the power to decide whether Ukraine stands or falls, that power lies first and foremost - unfortunately - with Russia and after that with Ukraine itself. > The US also has the power to to give Russia some or all of what it wants. No, it doesn't have that power at all. > Ukraine has very little say. That may be so but you have a pretty weird idea of how war works, and you seem to forget that Europe has a fairly large amount of influence in the region as well.
  - s1artibartfast 5y ago
    >> Ukraines NATO aspirations >This is irrelevant. >>The US also has the power to to give Russia some or all of what it wants. >No, it doesn't have that power at all. This is literally one of Russias demands, which the US has the power to unilaterally grant or deny. US arms, money, and support are necessary if Ukraine has any chance of long term success. NATO will always fall in line with US demands.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      > This is literally one of Russias demands, which the US has the power to unilaterally grant or deny. Again, incorrect. Why do you keep saying stuff that is factually incorrect? > US arms, money, and support are necessary if Ukraine has any chance of long term success. They would certainly help, but they are not the only kind of support that Ukraine is receiving. > NATO will always fall in line with US demands. This too is incorrect. The US has not asked Ukraine to 'join NATO', it has been the other way around. Russia has been told in no uncertain terms that it isn't up to them whether or not Ukraine joins NATO, but that this is up to NATO (and it's various partners). The US is obviously a formidable player in international politics and in many ways and on many fronts it is the only player. And currently several partners in NATO have wildly different viewpoints on how to deal best with the war in Ukraine, but one thing they all seem to agree on is simply that as long as the war is limited to Ukrainian territory that they will not intervene directly. That said, NATO, and in particular Poland is already involved in quite a few ways and their decisions have a very large effect on the outcome. This stopped being about Ukraine vs Russia a while ago, the question that matters is whether or not it will spiral out of control and pull the rest of the Eastern European countries into it and how if that happens NATO will respond. And for all of the statements that have been made the proof of the pudding will be in the eating. Personally I hope that Ukraine with continued assistance from Europe and the US will hold out long enough that someone with a bit more sense will seize power in Russia, which is the best possible outcome. Failing that you may get to a point where you regret living in this particular decade. Who does or does not join NATO is utterly irrelevant compared to the stakes, and Russia can demand all it wants, as long as it does not withdraw (or at least declares a ceasefire) from Ukraine the crisis is deepening by the day.