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If you think its coming, move your money to hedges. But people have been predicting the next big crash for the last 5 years to no avail, so don’t be surprised i

If you think its coming, move your money to hedges. But people have been predicting the next big crash for the last 5 years to no avail, so don’t be surprised if you miss out on major gains.

mckirk 5y ago
Really? Everything points to 'economy is fucked for the foreseeable future', people are worrying about possible food and energy shortages, and your take is 'don't forget your FOMO though, stonks still go up'?
- CyberRabbi 5y ago
  Generally, the best time to invest is precisely when everyone else is pessimistic about the market. When I say invest, I mean true investing. Long time horizon. Like others have said, that’s aside from the point. You are more likely to lose than gain by timing the market. That’s what the GP is getting at.
- cpach 5y ago
  If one has assets, my advice is to diversify them appropriately.
- Illniyar 5y ago
  You mean like in 2020 when the entire world was shut down because of COVID? Or in 2018 when a trade war between china and US was just around the corner? Or in 2016 when Brexit was the fall of the EU and Trump just got elected? There's always something, and it's never clear that that something is going to actually be the real deal.
  - xupybd 5y ago
    This is a good point. My fear is that thing just keep compounding. If tensions rise we could see China and the west getting less friendly. I live in the bottom of the Pacific and we rely heavily on Chinese trade.
- usednet 5y ago
  If you’re so confident, buy shorts and VIX calls. The stock market has proven to be largely detached from economic reality in the last few years, so don’t think any few indicators are proof that anything will happen.
- jwarden 5y ago
  That’s not what GP is saying. They are not saying you shouldn’t take steps to diversify and reduce risk. But conventional wisdom is that you can’t time the market, so you shouldn’t necessarily expect to beat the market by selling now and buying back in later when the war is over.
- bregma 5y ago
  Everything has always pointed to the economy being fucked up for the foreseeable future. Many careers have been made on exploiting that fear. They only thing that really counts in the end is that you, personally, have enough revenue to cover your expenditures. If not, increase the former and decrease the latter until you do. You may need to adjust your expectations too.
mellavora 5y ago
Nasdaq is down 19% for the year. Looking at one of the best biotech hedge funds, YoY% is -5% (March 2021-March 2022). These don't qualify as a major gain in my book.
- Slartie 5y ago
  The "major gains" don't come during the time in which all signs seem to point towards the end of the world being near. The gains materialize when the end of the world that everyone expected yesterday eventually fails to materialize.
devnull3 5y ago
> predicting the next big crash for the last 5 years to no avail It's precisely when no one (i.e mainstream media) is expecting, things go south. E.g 2008 However, ppl predicting crash will be right eventually because boom-bust happens in cycles. We just don't know when. Even a broken clock shows the right time twice a day.
baq 5y ago
some people have been predicting economic growth and are now predicting a recession... so there's that. the bond market is sending signals already, see LQD, HYG, JNK.

If you think its coming, move your money to hedges. But people have been predicting the next big crash for the last 5 years to no avail, so don’t be surprised if you miss out on major gains.

mckirk 5y ago

Really? Everything points to 'economy is fucked for the foreseeable future', people are worrying about possible food and energy shortages, and your take is 'don't forget your FOMO though, stonks still go up'?

CyberRabbi 5y ago
Generally, the best time to invest is precisely when everyone else is pessimistic about the market. When I say invest, I mean true investing. Long time horizon. Like others have said, that’s aside from the point. You are more likely to lose than gain by timing the market. That’s what the GP is getting at.
cpach 5y ago
If one has assets, my advice is to diversify them appropriately.
Illniyar 5y ago
You mean like in 2020 when the entire world was shut down because of COVID? Or in 2018 when a trade war between china and US was just around the corner? Or in 2016 when Brexit was the fall of the EU and Trump just got elected? There's always something, and it's never clear that that something is going to actually be the real deal.
- xupybd 5y ago
  This is a good point. My fear is that thing just keep compounding. If tensions rise we could see China and the west getting less friendly. I live in the bottom of the Pacific and we rely heavily on Chinese trade.
usednet 5y ago
If you’re so confident, buy shorts and VIX calls. The stock market has proven to be largely detached from economic reality in the last few years, so don’t think any few indicators are proof that anything will happen.
jwarden 5y ago
That’s not what GP is saying. They are not saying you shouldn’t take steps to diversify and reduce risk. But conventional wisdom is that you can’t time the market, so you shouldn’t necessarily expect to beat the market by selling now and buying back in later when the war is over.
bregma 5y ago
Everything has always pointed to the economy being fucked up for the foreseeable future. Many careers have been made on exploiting that fear. They only thing that really counts in the end is that you, personally, have enough revenue to cover your expenditures. If not, increase the former and decrease the latter until you do. You may need to adjust your expectations too.

mellavora 5y ago

Nasdaq is down 19% for the year. Looking at one of the best biotech hedge funds, YoY% is -5% (March 2021-March 2022). These don't qualify as a major gain in my book.

Slartie 5y ago
The "major gains" don't come during the time in which all signs seem to point towards the end of the world being near. The gains materialize when the end of the world that everyone expected yesterday eventually fails to materialize.

devnull3 5y ago

> predicting the next big crash for the last 5 years to no avail It's precisely when no one (i.e mainstream media) is expecting, things go south. E.g 2008 However, ppl predicting crash will be right eventually because boom-bust happens in cycles. We just don't know when. Even a broken clock shows the right time twice a day.

baq 5y ago

some people have been predicting economic growth and are now predicting a recession... so there's that. the bond market is sending signals already, see LQD, HYG, JNK.