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In my opinion lockdown works best at early time, when the number is low. There you can have very short time lock down, eliminate the cases and go back to normal

In my opinion lockdown works best at early time, when the number is low. There you can have very short time lock down, eliminate the cases and go back to normal.

elevenoh 5y ago
pgwhalen 5y ago
I haven’t been following COVID closely enough to know, are there any instances where this has actually worked in the long term?
- HWR_14 5y ago
  It worked in China (seemingly) and New Zealand for a couple of years
  - ellopoppit 5y ago
    >It worked in China (seemingly) No, it didn't, they've just been censoring their cases and deaths, and arresting journalists and activists who try to report the truth. https://qz.com/1846277/china-arrests-users-behind-github-coronavirus-memories-page/amp/ https://qz.com/1846277/china-arrests-users-behind-github-cor... https://terminus2049.github.io/ https://terminus2049.github.io/
    - DebtDeflation 5y ago
      Even if it did "work" in China with their draconian lockdowns, that was against pre-Omicron variants. Omicron is so much more infectious that's it's already too late for lockdowns if they have several thousand confirmed cases already. As an aside, if there was something you were considering purchasing over the next 12-18 months that is made in China or has components made in China (so pretty much anything) I'd suggest getting your order in now.
    - HWR_14 5y ago
      That's why I added the seemingly. Although those reports are from early 2020, when it was widely assumed China was fudging their numbers and was about prelockdown results. The question was about the efficacy of lockdowns. Since then China seems to have done okay with sporadic lockdowns. They could have been covering up major outbreaks (I don't speak Chinese, so I cannot read the terminus github)
      - ellopoppit 5y ago
        >I don't speak Chinese, so I cannot read the terminus github Chrome has a translate feature.
        HWR_14 5y ago
        There's also a web translator that doesn't require installing google software. But when last I used it it didn't seem sufficient to rely on for censored headlines.
    - aaomidi 5y ago
      So they just did it for no reason and for the fun of it? It seems odd that two random links are the "evidence" that it didn't work. The lockdowns came with a heavy cost for China, so honestly, what you're saying doesn't really make sense.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
      - ellopoppit 5y ago
        It's the data which doesn't make sense, as a starting point. Look at their reported death data before and after 4/19/20 and tell me if that makes sense to you? It's laughably obvious https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
        aaomidi 5y ago
        It does actually make a lot of sense considering 1. Early days of the pandemic, some of our interventions made death far more likely. 2. The outbreak was in one region of China, and that outbreak was stopped REALLY fast with the lockdowns. 3. The early strain was far less deadly than, say, delta. Getting access to info on China isn't as hard as you think. They might've hid/miscalculated a death here and there, but nothing on the scale of what you're suggesting.
        ellopoppit 5y ago
        How do you explain a skyrocketing death count that flat lines to zero the same day people were getting arrested for reporting on the censorship and coverups that had been going on since late 2019 when Wuhan doctors were raising the alarm? Do you genuinely believe China has had zero covid deaths since 4/19/20 and has not done any coverups or censorship regarding covid?
- powerapple 5y ago
  It only works if everyone is doing the same, meaning other countries would also eliminating the virus. China still has the borders closed. It is a virus, if you cut the spreading chain, it would stop spreading, it is logic. Lock-down works or not depending on the application of lockdown, if it isn't implemented fully, probably it is better not to have a lockdown (contact tracing, isolated cases with massive tests and so on). Again, you cannot hide massive breakout of a virus, if you didn't hear it, it didn't happen

In my opinion lockdown works best at early time, when the number is low. There you can have very short time lock down, eliminate the cases and go back to normal.

elevenoh 5y ago

pgwhalen 5y ago

I haven’t been following COVID closely enough to know, are there any instances where this has actually worked in the long term?

HWR_14 5y ago
It worked in China (seemingly) and New Zealand for a couple of years
- ellopoppit 5y ago
  >It worked in China (seemingly) No, it didn't, they've just been censoring their cases and deaths, and arresting journalists and activists who try to report the truth. https://qz.com/1846277/china-arrests-users-behind-github-coronavirus-memories-page/amp/ https://qz.com/1846277/china-arrests-users-behind-github-cor... https://terminus2049.github.io/ https://terminus2049.github.io/
  - DebtDeflation 5y ago
    Even if it did "work" in China with their draconian lockdowns, that was against pre-Omicron variants. Omicron is so much more infectious that's it's already too late for lockdowns if they have several thousand confirmed cases already. As an aside, if there was something you were considering purchasing over the next 12-18 months that is made in China or has components made in China (so pretty much anything) I'd suggest getting your order in now.
  - HWR_14 5y ago
    That's why I added the seemingly. Although those reports are from early 2020, when it was widely assumed China was fudging their numbers and was about prelockdown results. The question was about the efficacy of lockdowns. Since then China seems to have done okay with sporadic lockdowns. They could have been covering up major outbreaks (I don't speak Chinese, so I cannot read the terminus github)
    - ellopoppit 5y ago
      >I don't speak Chinese, so I cannot read the terminus github Chrome has a translate feature.
      - HWR_14 5y ago
        There's also a web translator that doesn't require installing google software. But when last I used it it didn't seem sufficient to rely on for censored headlines.
  - aaomidi 5y ago
    So they just did it for no reason and for the fun of it? It seems odd that two random links are the "evidence" that it didn't work. The lockdowns came with a heavy cost for China, so honestly, what you're saying doesn't really make sense.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - ellopoppit 5y ago
      It's the data which doesn't make sense, as a starting point. Look at their reported death data before and after 4/19/20 and tell me if that makes sense to you? It's laughably obvious https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
      - aaomidi 5y ago
        It does actually make a lot of sense considering 1. Early days of the pandemic, some of our interventions made death far more likely. 2. The outbreak was in one region of China, and that outbreak was stopped REALLY fast with the lockdowns. 3. The early strain was far less deadly than, say, delta. Getting access to info on China isn't as hard as you think. They might've hid/miscalculated a death here and there, but nothing on the scale of what you're suggesting.
        ellopoppit 5y ago
        How do you explain a skyrocketing death count that flat lines to zero the same day people were getting arrested for reporting on the censorship and coverups that had been going on since late 2019 when Wuhan doctors were raising the alarm? Do you genuinely believe China has had zero covid deaths since 4/19/20 and has not done any coverups or censorship regarding covid?
powerapple 5y ago
It only works if everyone is doing the same, meaning other countries would also eliminating the virus. China still has the borders closed. It is a virus, if you cut the spreading chain, it would stop spreading, it is logic. Lock-down works or not depending on the application of lockdown, if it isn't implemented fully, probably it is better not to have a lockdown (contact tracing, isolated cases with massive tests and so on). Again, you cannot hide massive breakout of a virus, if you didn't hear it, it didn't happen