I think most casual observers, myself included, expected to see the Ukrainian government fled/killed, a new puppet leader installed and Russian tank columns occ

I think most casual observers, myself included, expected to see the Ukrainian government fled/killed, a new puppet leader installed and Russian tank columns occupying Kiev within a week of the invasion starting. And this seems to have been what Russia expected as well, at least if the notorious plan "leak" on Belarus state TV is to be believed. The fact that this has clearly failed to happen indicates that the war is not going as planned. For comparison, it took the US three weeks total from launching their invasion of Iraq to taking over Baghdad, despite there being approximately 5x more distance to cover and Iraq fielding an army twice as large as Ukraine.