9 ms·

1.4B population 3400 corona cases Why lockdown 17.5m in Shenzhen? What am I missing, because it has to be a lot

by elevenoh 5y ago

Barrin92 5y ago
the exponential nature of disease spread. This is how China has largely stayed covid free.
- londons_explore 5y ago
  I want to know what their future plans are... Do they plan on doing rolling lockdowns forever? Are they hoping to develop a better vaccine that prevents the disease spreading? (As opposed to merely reducing death rates as all existing vaccines do?)
  - Mountain_Skies 5y ago
    They might be going for the NZ and AU plan that seemed to be to keep things at bay for as long as possible while the virus hopefully mutates into something less dangerous. Lockdowns can't go on forever but if you can keep them going until falling below a certain threshold of danger from being infected, you might be able to avoid the worst impact of the virus itself. Of course the lockdowns and other measures might end up being worse than what the more dangerous variant of the virus would have done but that's the kind of thing that will debated for decades to come.
- ellopoppit 5y ago
  >This is how China has largely stayed covid free. Do people actually believe this? If you look at their reported numbers from early on in the pandemic its plainly obvious when they decided to start hard censoring their true numbers. Look at the reported deaths before and after 4/19/20. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/ Note that 4/19/20 was also the same day they were arresting activists who had been reporting on the coverups that had been going on since late 2019. https://qz.com/1846277/china-arrests-users-behind-github-coronavirus-memories-page/amp/ https://qz.com/1846277/china-arrests-users-behind-github-cor...
  - kbelder 5y ago
    Frighteningly, the Chinese official numbers are used in studies and analysis of Covid spread, despite them being entirely unreliable.
    - 908B64B197 5y ago
      Look who's financing these studies...
    - fold3 5y ago
      I was in the Netherlands for the first year of the pandemic and the local CDC was very hostile to testing until rather late. I believe good studies take that into account.
  - Barrin92 5y ago
    >Do people actually believe this? I was in Beijing for most of 2020 and spring of 2021 so yes as life was normal. I mean I don't doubt the numbers are unreliable or off by 5-10x or something at the beginning of the pandemic but I didn't have a single case at work or my social circle for the entire year of 2020. So at least from the summer on I consider it fairly accurate.
vegai_ 5y ago
- ok_dad 5y ago
  A virus has no nationality.
otabdeveloper4 5y ago
You know the answer.
powerapple 5y ago
In my opinion lockdown works best at early time, when the number is low. There you can have very short time lock down, eliminate the cases and go back to normal.
- elevenoh 5y ago
- pgwhalen 5y ago
  I haven’t been following COVID closely enough to know, are there any instances where this has actually worked in the long term?
  - HWR_14 5y ago
    It worked in China (seemingly) and New Zealand for a couple of years
    - ellopoppit 5y ago
      >It worked in China (seemingly) No, it didn't, they've just been censoring their cases and deaths, and arresting journalists and activists who try to report the truth. https://qz.com/1846277/china-arrests-users-behind-github-coronavirus-memories-page/amp/ https://qz.com/1846277/china-arrests-users-behind-github-cor... https://terminus2049.github.io/ https://terminus2049.github.io/
      - DebtDeflation 5y ago
        Even if it did "work" in China with their draconian lockdowns, that was against pre-Omicron variants. Omicron is so much more infectious that's it's already too late for lockdowns if they have several thousand confirmed cases already. As an aside, if there was something you were considering purchasing over the next 12-18 months that is made in China or has components made in China (so pretty much anything) I'd suggest getting your order in now.
      - 5y ago
aahortwwy 5y ago
Hard lockdowns and aggressive contact tracing are incredibly effective when case numbers are very low. Contact tracing in particular becomes significantly less effective as case numbers climb. What they are hoping to accomplish with these measures is to stop the current outbreak in its tracks and return to low-to-zero daily case numbers. At some point they will fail to contain an outbreak (either intentionally or accidentally) and then the case numbers will skyrocket in a very short period of time.
testhest 5y ago
Lockdowns never made sense which is why WHO recommended against them until China started doing them.

1.4B population 3400 corona cases Why lockdown 17.5m in Shenzhen? What am I missing, because it has to be a lot

Barrin92 5y ago

the exponential nature of disease spread. This is how China has largely stayed covid free.

londons_explore 5y ago
I want to know what their future plans are... Do they plan on doing rolling lockdowns forever? Are they hoping to develop a better vaccine that prevents the disease spreading? (As opposed to merely reducing death rates as all existing vaccines do?)
- Mountain_Skies 5y ago
  They might be going for the NZ and AU plan that seemed to be to keep things at bay for as long as possible while the virus hopefully mutates into something less dangerous. Lockdowns can't go on forever but if you can keep them going until falling below a certain threshold of danger from being infected, you might be able to avoid the worst impact of the virus itself. Of course the lockdowns and other measures might end up being worse than what the more dangerous variant of the virus would have done but that's the kind of thing that will debated for decades to come.
ellopoppit 5y ago
>This is how China has largely stayed covid free. Do people actually believe this? If you look at their reported numbers from early on in the pandemic its plainly obvious when they decided to start hard censoring their true numbers. Look at the reported deaths before and after 4/19/20. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/ Note that 4/19/20 was also the same day they were arresting activists who had been reporting on the coverups that had been going on since late 2019. https://qz.com/1846277/china-arrests-users-behind-github-coronavirus-memories-page/amp/ https://qz.com/1846277/china-arrests-users-behind-github-cor...
- kbelder 5y ago
  Frighteningly, the Chinese official numbers are used in studies and analysis of Covid spread, despite them being entirely unreliable.
  - 908B64B197 5y ago
    Look who's financing these studies...
  - fold3 5y ago
    I was in the Netherlands for the first year of the pandemic and the local CDC was very hostile to testing until rather late. I believe good studies take that into account.
- Barrin92 5y ago
  >Do people actually believe this? I was in Beijing for most of 2020 and spring of 2021 so yes as life was normal. I mean I don't doubt the numbers are unreliable or off by 5-10x or something at the beginning of the pandemic but I didn't have a single case at work or my social circle for the entire year of 2020. So at least from the summer on I consider it fairly accurate.

vegai_ 5y ago

ok_dad 5y ago
A virus has no nationality.

otabdeveloper4 5y ago

You know the answer.

powerapple 5y ago

In my opinion lockdown works best at early time, when the number is low. There you can have very short time lock down, eliminate the cases and go back to normal.

elevenoh 5y ago
pgwhalen 5y ago
I haven’t been following COVID closely enough to know, are there any instances where this has actually worked in the long term?
- HWR_14 5y ago
  It worked in China (seemingly) and New Zealand for a couple of years
  - ellopoppit 5y ago
    >It worked in China (seemingly) No, it didn't, they've just been censoring their cases and deaths, and arresting journalists and activists who try to report the truth. https://qz.com/1846277/china-arrests-users-behind-github-coronavirus-memories-page/amp/ https://qz.com/1846277/china-arrests-users-behind-github-cor... https://terminus2049.github.io/ https://terminus2049.github.io/
    - DebtDeflation 5y ago
      Even if it did "work" in China with their draconian lockdowns, that was against pre-Omicron variants. Omicron is so much more infectious that's it's already too late for lockdowns if they have several thousand confirmed cases already. As an aside, if there was something you were considering purchasing over the next 12-18 months that is made in China or has components made in China (so pretty much anything) I'd suggest getting your order in now.
    - 5y ago

aahortwwy 5y ago

Hard lockdowns and aggressive contact tracing are incredibly effective when case numbers are very low. Contact tracing in particular becomes significantly less effective as case numbers climb. What they are hoping to accomplish with these measures is to stop the current outbreak in its tracks and return to low-to-zero daily case numbers. At some point they will fail to contain an outbreak (either intentionally or accidentally) and then the case numbers will skyrocket in a very short period of time.

testhest 5y ago

Lockdowns never made sense which is why WHO recommended against them until China started doing them.