This piece is getting a lot of attention on western blob sphere because it's "China's Chernobyl" tier fantasy thinking analysis by one of the few pro-west voice

This piece is getting a lot of attention on western blob sphere because it's "China's Chernobyl" tier fantasy thinking analysis by one of the few pro-west voices in PRC analysis circles. Obviously the piece got censored right away. Like Ren Zhiqiang / Cai Xia, former got purged, latter had to escape to west and now works for lol Hudson Institute copypasting neolib positions. Important to note unlike west where blob expertise i.e. think tank / NGOs has much larger impact on actual policy than in PRC where there's parallel set of internal CCP expertise to draw from. Recent interviews from western China-hands who still have some connection with PRC counterparts (i.e. track 1.5/2/3 diplomacy) after two years of muted people-to-people contact due to covid travel have overwhelming concluded PRC decision makers are hardened their stance that US after Trump/Biden is systematically incapable of being light on PRC again. There's no hope for rapprochement. Hu's analysis that turns every dice roll wildly pro-west certainly won't reach politburo and if it did, his concluding line will certainly elicit a chuckle: > As a result, China will surely win widespread international praise for maintaining world peace, which may help China prevent isolation but also find an opportunity to improve its relations with the United States and the West. Believing PRC should (and can) improve relations with US is medically retarded at this point. Let alone "surely win international praise". And to do so freely without any concessions in return knowing full well a contained RU means PRC is next on the chopping block. If West want PRC's help, start by lifting tariffs, removing sanctions, selling EUV machines, stop arming TW. The fact that US has continued pressure on PRC over TW, EU still jerks about IndoPac, while having talks with sanctioned countries like VZ to release oil means there's no point adopting "mainstream" / west position that's actually not mainstream considering more than half world's population are sitting out (including most of ASEAN). Currently PRC has no interest picking sides, and if it had to, it would pick turning east Europe into a prolonged quagmire behind the scenes because EU foreign policy was shifting anti PRC pre UKR anyway. If UKR is the start of a "world [that] is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century", PRC would opt for changes that makes LIO weaker not stronger.