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Grotesque question: What is on the "war invoice" for Russia? Rockets, fighter jets and tanks were already paid for. Fuel costs zero if you are a dictatorship wi

Grotesque question: What is on the "war invoice" for Russia? Rockets, fighter jets and tanks were already paid for. Fuel costs zero if you are a dictatorship with petrol in your backyard. Salaries are probably just printed money. As recently as March 12th, Putin showed unwillingness to end the war. This means that either: A. He lives in an alternative reality. B. He is bluffing. C. Economic sanctions don't affect the war machine as much as we hoped for.

kstenerud 5y ago
Everything costs. Refining fuel, transporting fuel & munitions & personnel, paying soldiers, logistics, food, intelligence, maintenance, supply lines... it all costs - a LOT. And it's even worse doing it in a country full of people who are now hostile. Just because you're printing money doesn't change the actual real cost. If your salary can't even buy food for a day, you notice. Putin is trying to stave off inflation by keeping the markets closed and blocking capital flight, but that only gives a little bit of breathing room. Stores are running out of their pre-shock stock, and once that happens everything goes crazy. This happened because Putin trusted his FSP reports too much, underestimating just how badly they were lying to appease their superiors (you get forced to redo reports until they show at least a minimum of optimism). Putin knows they're lies from his own time there, but somehow he still vastly underestimated. Reports of 10,000 missiles turned out to actually be 1/10 of that. Fighting force readiness was grossly exaggerated. SVR also exaggerated Ukrainian desires - he actually thought that he'd be welcomed, and that any resistance would be from agents provocateurs and splinter groups (thus his 1-day estimate to complete the takeover of Ukraine). Now he's stuck, and angry, arresting members of his intelligence service and sacking military commanders when he has none to spare. This is not how the cold, calculating Putin we've all known behaves. He's rolling the dice again and again, upping the stakes and hoping for the big payoff. I suppose that's understandable since it's now his neck at stake. We do know, however, that he's not insane. He's avoided attacking NATO countries or weapons convoys, and is instead going for intimidation (like with the rocket attack 15km from the Polish border) and sieges (attacking and mining humanitarian corridors). But he's been bluffing so much now that it's lost its effectiveness. The West knows they've got him, that his military is a shambles, that no one will help him, that the oligarchs are scared, and that he's spending the country into oblivion. All they have to do is wait. The Ukrainians will fight to the death, so there's no real danger of Russia actually taking Ukraine - just provide enough weaponry and they'll hold out for as long as it takes. Russian intelligence predicts that the war can only be sustained until June. I personally believe this to be laughably optimistic.
- dTal 5y ago
  >you get forced to redo reports until they show at least a minimum of optimism I want to say that this is not a disease unique to dictatorships. The US military has been known to do this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002

kstenerud 5y ago

Everything costs. Refining fuel, transporting fuel & munitions & personnel, paying soldiers, logistics, food, intelligence, maintenance, supply lines... it all costs - a LOT. And it's even worse doing it in a country full of people who are now hostile. Just because you're printing money doesn't change the actual real cost. If your salary can't even buy food for a day, you notice. Putin is trying to stave off inflation by keeping the markets closed and blocking capital flight, but that only gives a little bit of breathing room. Stores are running out of their pre-shock stock, and once that happens everything goes crazy. This happened because Putin trusted his FSP reports too much, underestimating just how badly they were lying to appease their superiors (you get forced to redo reports until they show at least a minimum of optimism). Putin knows they're lies from his own time there, but somehow he still vastly underestimated. Reports of 10,000 missiles turned out to actually be 1/10 of that. Fighting force readiness was grossly exaggerated. SVR also exaggerated Ukrainian desires - he actually thought that he'd be welcomed, and that any resistance would be from agents provocateurs and splinter groups (thus his 1-day estimate to complete the takeover of Ukraine). Now he's stuck, and angry, arresting members of his intelligence service and sacking military commanders when he has none to spare. This is not how the cold, calculating Putin we've all known behaves. He's rolling the dice again and again, upping the stakes and hoping for the big payoff. I suppose that's understandable since it's now his neck at stake. We do know, however, that he's not insane. He's avoided attacking NATO countries or weapons convoys, and is instead going for intimidation (like with the rocket attack 15km from the Polish border) and sieges (attacking and mining humanitarian corridors). But he's been bluffing so much now that it's lost its effectiveness. The West knows they've got him, that his military is a shambles, that no one will help him, that the oligarchs are scared, and that he's spending the country into oblivion. All they have to do is wait. The Ukrainians will fight to the death, so there's no real danger of Russia actually taking Ukraine - just provide enough weaponry and they'll hold out for as long as it takes. Russian intelligence predicts that the war can only be sustained until June. I personally believe this to be laughably optimistic.

dTal 5y ago
>you get forced to redo reports until they show at least a minimum of optimism I want to say that this is not a disease unique to dictatorships. The US military has been known to do this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002