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Well, it might be so but what's the point in Russia pissing off Finland while a good chunk of its forces is dedicated to the war in Ukraine? They're irrational

Well, it might be so but what's the point in Russia pissing off Finland while a good chunk of its forces is dedicated to the war in Ukraine? They're irrational but surely going "Let's start a war on TWO fronts!" is a step too far even for them?

waihtis 5y ago
Asymmetry - Russia knows we won't conduct an offensive and they can stress-free empty their Finnish border for this campaign
- mads_ravn 5y ago
  I’ve been sort of amazed by the line of reasoning as well: Russia can invade a democracy aligning with “the west”, but if “the west” were to, say, bomb the military in a country that is aligning with Russia (after ignoring election results and suppressing the opposition with violence), then we would be inviting nuclear war. Very asymmetric, but I guess that is the advantage of being an autocrat with a propensity for throwing threats around :/
Delk 5y ago
There's no way Russia pissing Finland off to any conceivable degree would risk war or military retaliation from present-day Finland. None. The same goes for any other Nordic (and Baltic) countries. The current Russian regime likes to demonstrate its power now and then, though, and to try and project its influence through intimidation. They can do that with their significantly smaller neighbours with no risk of military retaliation. There are risks, of course, but those would be in the form of deteriorating relationships and the associated economical costs, or from losing overall international rapport and respect. Those don't seem to matter much to the current regime in Russia, though.
- saiya-jin 5y ago
  Well they may push Finland to Nato, which is a major strategic fuckup on Russian part. Considering how Finns are generally portrayed in Russia I think its stupid to be a direct Russian neighbor and claim neutrality now... there is no such thing as neutrality in this case.
  - CRConrad 5y ago
    > Considering how Finns are generally portrayed in Russia I think its stupid to be a direct Russian neighbor and claim neutrality now... I also think its stupid to be a direct Russian neighbour and claim neutrality, but I don't connect that to how Finns are generally portrayed in Russia. (I hold that opinion just on general strategic and historical grounds.) In fact, I didn't even know Finns are generally portrayed some particular way in Russia. So, how are Finns generally portrayed in Russia in your experience, and/or how is that realated to the stupidity of being neighbours with Russia and claiming neutrality?

waihtis 5y ago

Asymmetry - Russia knows we won't conduct an offensive and they can stress-free empty their Finnish border for this campaign

mads_ravn 5y ago
I’ve been sort of amazed by the line of reasoning as well: Russia can invade a democracy aligning with “the west”, but if “the west” were to, say, bomb the military in a country that is aligning with Russia (after ignoring election results and suppressing the opposition with violence), then we would be inviting nuclear war. Very asymmetric, but I guess that is the advantage of being an autocrat with a propensity for throwing threats around :/

Delk 5y ago

There's no way Russia pissing Finland off to any conceivable degree would risk war or military retaliation from present-day Finland. None. The same goes for any other Nordic (and Baltic) countries. The current Russian regime likes to demonstrate its power now and then, though, and to try and project its influence through intimidation. They can do that with their significantly smaller neighbours with no risk of military retaliation. There are risks, of course, but those would be in the form of deteriorating relationships and the associated economical costs, or from losing overall international rapport and respect. Those don't seem to matter much to the current regime in Russia, though.

saiya-jin 5y ago
Well they may push Finland to Nato, which is a major strategic fuckup on Russian part. Considering how Finns are generally portrayed in Russia I think its stupid to be a direct Russian neighbor and claim neutrality now... there is no such thing as neutrality in this case.
- CRConrad 5y ago
  > Considering how Finns are generally portrayed in Russia I think its stupid to be a direct Russian neighbor and claim neutrality now... I also think its stupid to be a direct Russian neighbour and claim neutrality, but I don't connect that to how Finns are generally portrayed in Russia. (I hold that opinion just on general strategic and historical grounds.) In fact, I didn't even know Finns are generally portrayed some particular way in Russia. So, how are Finns generally portrayed in Russia in your experience, and/or how is that realated to the stupidity of being neighbours with Russia and claiming neutrality?