3 ms·

Even though plan A (rapid victory) appears to have failed, there is still a rational plan B: carve out the eastern and southern portions Putin wants, leave the

by jl6 5y ago

Even though plan A (rapid victory) appears to have failed, there is still a rational plan B: carve out the eastern and southern portions Putin wants, leave the rest of the country a smouldering ruin which will cost the west $1tn in aid to rebuild.

ChuckNorris89 5y ago
>will cost the west $1tn in aid to rebuild Why the west? Sanctions against Russia should stay on place until they agree to pay for the reparations.
- sokoloff 5y ago
  How long is the western world willing to leave Ukraine in ruins until Russia agrees to pay for the reparations? They seem equally likely to pay the reparations as Mexico is to pay for a wall.
  - trasz 5y ago
    We could confiscate all the Russian assets. That’s some 300 billion dollars there.
    - gcthomas 5y ago
      A trillion dollars of Russian assets have already been frozen by the US alone. Across the whole world, there will be plenty of funds if only a fraction ends up getting confiscated.
  - Tams80 5y ago
    Offer Ukraine bursaries and low-interest loans. Then over time take money from Russia as possible. Plus all the frozen assets.
- newaccount2021 5y ago
waihtis 5y ago
A rational plan would've been to confine the conflict into Donbas & Krim. I would make the argument that barely any sanctions would've been put in place if Russia had occupied the areas it was already fighting in, since the west barely cared in 2014
- tharkun__ 5y ago
  I'm not so sure. If you look at the map, if you want to connect the Krim by land you need more than what was held by the Donbas. That nice wide river coming down from Kiew would make a great border though. And you need something to 'give' in negotiations so you have to take more. Plus Kiew is on that river which would not be great. Would you want Ukraine's capital to basically sit right on your border? Also I bet you Putin wants these high yield parts, controlling not only Europe's oil and gas supply but also lots of their food supply can only be good for Putin. Look at how much Germany was trying not piss him off even while cruise missiles were destroying Ukraine: http://static.producer.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Ukraine_Wheat_Web_Area_Map.jpg http://static.producer.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Ukrain... So a little more on the coast too (Odessa). If he does leave some of Ukraine in the hands of Ukrainians to end the war and go back to selling Europe gas and oil then a land locked Ukraine would make much less of a threat later too. And while we are at it why not try for the whole thing? There's a good plan B there. And if you're gonna threaten WWIII, do it for as much gain as you can.
  - waihtis 5y ago
    Hmm.. could be, could be..

by jl6 5y ago

ChuckNorris89 5y ago

>will cost the west $1tn in aid to rebuild Why the west? Sanctions against Russia should stay on place until they agree to pay for the reparations.

sokoloff 5y ago
How long is the western world willing to leave Ukraine in ruins until Russia agrees to pay for the reparations? They seem equally likely to pay the reparations as Mexico is to pay for a wall.
- trasz 5y ago
  We could confiscate all the Russian assets. That’s some 300 billion dollars there.
  - gcthomas 5y ago
    A trillion dollars of Russian assets have already been frozen by the US alone. Across the whole world, there will be plenty of funds if only a fraction ends up getting confiscated.
- Tams80 5y ago
  Offer Ukraine bursaries and low-interest loans. Then over time take money from Russia as possible. Plus all the frozen assets.
newaccount2021 5y ago

waihtis 5y ago

A rational plan would've been to confine the conflict into Donbas & Krim. I would make the argument that barely any sanctions would've been put in place if Russia had occupied the areas it was already fighting in, since the west barely cared in 2014

tharkun__ 5y ago
I'm not so sure. If you look at the map, if you want to connect the Krim by land you need more than what was held by the Donbas. That nice wide river coming down from Kiew would make a great border though. And you need something to 'give' in negotiations so you have to take more. Plus Kiew is on that river which would not be great. Would you want Ukraine's capital to basically sit right on your border? Also I bet you Putin wants these high yield parts, controlling not only Europe's oil and gas supply but also lots of their food supply can only be good for Putin. Look at how much Germany was trying not piss him off even while cruise missiles were destroying Ukraine: http://static.producer.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Ukraine_Wheat_Web_Area_Map.jpg http://static.producer.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Ukrain... So a little more on the coast too (Odessa). If he does leave some of Ukraine in the hands of Ukrainians to end the war and go back to selling Europe gas and oil then a land locked Ukraine would make much less of a threat later too. And while we are at it why not try for the whole thing? There's a good plan B there. And if you're gonna threaten WWIII, do it for as much gain as you can.
- waihtis 5y ago
  Hmm.. could be, could be..