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I think that "run the timer" might well have been the initial strategy for the reasons you state but I think it's naïve to think that things are progressing acc
by kristiandupont 5y ago
I think that "run the timer" might well have been the initial strategy for the reasons you state but I think it's naïve to think that things are progressing according to that strategy.
The sanctions are much harder than anyone predicted and with a country that is, unlike North Korea, tightly integrated in supply chains through the world, they are hitting Russia hard. Now, Putin may not care about that and he obviously has no problem with letting people suffer so the war might continue for a few weeks but I doubt that we will see it lasting years, simply because I think they will not have the resources.
- brabel 5y ago> The sanctions are much harder than anyone predicted That's an unfalsifiable statement, but let's not forget that this is exactly what Biden had been saying for weeks before the war broke out... if Russia didn't know this was coming is only because they chose to believe Biden was just kidding, which I personally find silly to believe.
- kristiandupont 5y agoSure, I guess there is a chance that Biden knew that even Switzerland would abandon its policy of neutrality that it had been maintaining since the 1500's but it doesn't seem likely to me.
- brabel 5y agoWhat reason did you have to think that unlikely?
- int_19h 5y agoE.g. disabling SWIFT was mentioned every now and then since 2014, and this was taken quite seriously in Russia at the time - enough so to consider options. I remember a discussion I had with my family about how to wire money across the border if it happens.