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"Russia is in a bad way financially" is accurate, but from a Western perspective. Russia is obscenely rich in oil, gas, and almost every commodity. Russia is

"Russia is in a bad way financially" is accurate, but from a Western perspective. Russia is obscenely rich in oil, gas, and almost every commodity. Russia is USD poor, gold reserve rich (even with the West stealing some of it), and long literally every input material that the West will need for the massive infrastructure projects it claims to want for ESG purposes. Give it six months and when massive famines tear through most of the Third World (a term that is suddenly applicable in its Cold War era meaning), Russia will not have food security issues. Gas will be obscene expensive in Europe, but cheap in Russia. All these benefits will be extended to countries that chose to continue to trade with Russia. Want food security? Here is some Russian wheat available at a reasonable price . . . or you can import some very expensive American one. To put it simply, Russia's "peace and honor" strategy is to run the timer. Let the West's self-destructive sanctions work. Destroying yourself economically over Ukraine is the definition of a luxury belief, and most of the world has no room for luxury beliefs. Whether their wheat is coming from a corrupt Ukrainian government or a corrupt Russian government makes no difference as long as it comes.

kristiandupont 5y ago
I think that "run the timer" might well have been the initial strategy for the reasons you state but I think it's naïve to think that things are progressing according to that strategy. The sanctions are much harder than anyone predicted and with a country that is, unlike North Korea, tightly integrated in supply chains through the world, they are hitting Russia hard. Now, Putin may not care about that and he obviously has no problem with letting people suffer so the war might continue for a few weeks but I doubt that we will see it lasting years, simply because I think they will not have the resources.
- brabel 5y ago
  > The sanctions are much harder than anyone predicted That's an unfalsifiable statement, but let's not forget that this is exactly what Biden had been saying for weeks before the war broke out... if Russia didn't know this was coming is only because they chose to believe Biden was just kidding, which I personally find silly to believe.
  - kristiandupont 5y ago
    Sure, I guess there is a chance that Biden knew that even Switzerland would abandon its policy of neutrality that it had been maintaining since the 1500's but it doesn't seem likely to me.
    - brabel 5y ago
      What reason did you have to think that unlikely?
  - int_19h 5y ago
    E.g. disabling SWIFT was mentioned every now and then since 2014, and this was taken quite seriously in Russia at the time - enough so to consider options. I remember a discussion I had with my family about how to wire money across the border if it happens.
r_hoods_ghost 5y ago
I think there's an element of truth to what you say but I don't know if it would work. Russia will presumably still want to export its' raw materials and grains, even if not directly to the West. Because trade is very much global, countries will re export Russian imports to the rest of the world. This is actually how Russia's economy worked during the Soviet era with a surprising amount of indirect trade going on between the USSR and the west. While the sanctions are likely to be punishing for both sides with China especially willing to act as a middle man I suspect the actual effect of sanctions on Russia / west End to end trade will be less than expected and will help further strengthen China's position. And from a purely international realist position, western governments have never given a damn about people in the third or developing world starving and I can't see that changing now.
ciphol 5y ago
There won't be massive famines tearing through the third world. Much of the third world consists of net food exporters, not importers. As for the importers, food prices will increase due to missing Russian and Ukrainian supply, but food prices have always been volatile, and in recent decades that hasn't led to famine except in a few specific countries where high prices are combined with extreme repression or civil war.

kristiandupont 5y ago

I think that "run the timer" might well have been the initial strategy for the reasons you state but I think it's naïve to think that things are progressing according to that strategy. The sanctions are much harder than anyone predicted and with a country that is, unlike North Korea, tightly integrated in supply chains through the world, they are hitting Russia hard. Now, Putin may not care about that and he obviously has no problem with letting people suffer so the war might continue for a few weeks but I doubt that we will see it lasting years, simply because I think they will not have the resources.

brabel 5y ago
> The sanctions are much harder than anyone predicted That's an unfalsifiable statement, but let's not forget that this is exactly what Biden had been saying for weeks before the war broke out... if Russia didn't know this was coming is only because they chose to believe Biden was just kidding, which I personally find silly to believe.
- kristiandupont 5y ago
  Sure, I guess there is a chance that Biden knew that even Switzerland would abandon its policy of neutrality that it had been maintaining since the 1500's but it doesn't seem likely to me.
  - brabel 5y ago
    What reason did you have to think that unlikely?
- int_19h 5y ago
  E.g. disabling SWIFT was mentioned every now and then since 2014, and this was taken quite seriously in Russia at the time - enough so to consider options. I remember a discussion I had with my family about how to wire money across the border if it happens.

r_hoods_ghost 5y ago

I think there's an element of truth to what you say but I don't know if it would work. Russia will presumably still want to export its' raw materials and grains, even if not directly to the West. Because trade is very much global, countries will re export Russian imports to the rest of the world. This is actually how Russia's economy worked during the Soviet era with a surprising amount of indirect trade going on between the USSR and the west. While the sanctions are likely to be punishing for both sides with China especially willing to act as a middle man I suspect the actual effect of sanctions on Russia / west End to end trade will be less than expected and will help further strengthen China's position. And from a purely international realist position, western governments have never given a damn about people in the third or developing world starving and I can't see that changing now.

ciphol 5y ago

There won't be massive famines tearing through the third world. Much of the third world consists of net food exporters, not importers. As for the importers, food prices will increase due to missing Russian and Ukrainian supply, but food prices have always been volatile, and in recent decades that hasn't led to famine except in a few specific countries where high prices are combined with extreme repression or civil war.