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In New Zealand we are currently experiencing our first wave, by captia our case numbers are insane, and reality is vastly higher than what is being reported bec

In New Zealand we are currently experiencing our first wave, by captia our case numbers are insane, and reality is vastly higher than what is being reported because the system now relies on self reporting from RAT tests. In an hour we have as many new cases as we had in total in the first two years of COVID. But life is going on as semi-normal, most people are being reasonably responsible. 96% of the 12 yr+ population is double vaccinated, and about 60% boosted. The government has ruled out more lockdowns. I would be think China would have at least as good vaccination stats as New Zealand, and would be just as well equipped to deal with a "first" wave in 2022.

z3t111 5y ago
"I would be think China would have at least as good vaccination stats as New Zealand" This is probably not true. The Chinese vaccines are known to be much less effective.
- dehrmann 5y ago
  Hong Kong also had an issue with hesitancy because covid zero worked so well. Not sure if mainland China has the same issue.
sva_ 5y ago
> system now relies on self reporting from RAT tests When my social circle finally got COVID, the rapid tests didn't work at all for almost all of us. One friend even tested himself 15 times with them, and he definitely used it right. We used various RATs. PCR showed positive for Omicron though. I don't think those tests are as reliable as they're claimed to be. I would think hospital stats matter more than active cases though.
- rubatuga 5y ago
  Switch to oropharyngeal swabbing technique, this worked much better for me.
adastra22 5y ago
> and reality is vastly higher than what is being reported because the system now relies on self reporting from RAT tests Uh, that's not obvious. The RAT tests have massive false positive rates compared with PCR tests. Do they follow up a rapid antigen test with PCR? The chinese vaccine is garbage too. Even the official numbers are not great, but some countries which bought the Chinese vaccine tried to return it because many batches that they got failed QA tests.
- rubatuga 5y ago
  I think you mean false negative? There are very little false positives.
- procinct 5y ago
  Yes, they follow it up with a PCR
0xy 5y ago
NZ doesn't look like it has "ruled out lockdowns", considering your current "restrictions" (politically rebranded lockdowns, because lockdowns are extremely unpopular) are far more strict than most US states have ever had. [1] It includes insane requirements like requiring face masks in certain outdoor areas. Forcing children to wear masks in schools at 96% vaccinated sounds insane when vaccinations were pitched as a way to end lockdowns permanently. Did your government just bait and switch the population by keeping "restrictions" after a huge majority of the population got vaccinated? Sure seems like it. [1] https://covid19.govt.nz/traffic-lights/life-at-red/ https://covid19.govt.nz/traffic-lights/life-at-red/
jrapdx3 5y ago
This is very interesting. According to stats provided here [0], 77.5% of New Zealand's population are "fully vaccinated" against COVID. I think differences probably due to selected reference population, your figure is percent of eligible (>=12yo) whereas the number I found is per whole population (including those < 12yo). In any case 77.5% is pretty impressive, by comparison the US fully vax percent is lower at 65.2%/total population. Also NZ confirmed cases == 7.0% of population, US == 24.2%. Big difference there. Not sure what set of factors accounts for diff in cases rate. NZ may well have done more to keep the virus from spreading. On the whole though many more questions about COVID than answers. I'd also guess data collection and reporting practices vary a lot by region or country. Makes data hard to compare and in turn makes it hard to assess what works and what doesn't. I'm keeping a good thought better solutions will emerge. [0] https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
Mainland China's overall vaccination rate is about 90%, but there's a steep fall-off in the highest age groups. For whatever reason, old people have been much more hesitant about getting vaccinated, and only about 50% of people aged 80+ are vaccinated. Hopefully, there will be a push to convince the elderly to get vaccinated, and this outbreak might change a lot of minds.

z3t111 5y ago

"I would be think China would have at least as good vaccination stats as New Zealand" This is probably not true. The Chinese vaccines are known to be much less effective.

dehrmann 5y ago
Hong Kong also had an issue with hesitancy because covid zero worked so well. Not sure if mainland China has the same issue.

sva_ 5y ago

> system now relies on self reporting from RAT tests When my social circle finally got COVID, the rapid tests didn't work at all for almost all of us. One friend even tested himself 15 times with them, and he definitely used it right. We used various RATs. PCR showed positive for Omicron though. I don't think those tests are as reliable as they're claimed to be. I would think hospital stats matter more than active cases though.

rubatuga 5y ago
Switch to oropharyngeal swabbing technique, this worked much better for me.

adastra22 5y ago

> and reality is vastly higher than what is being reported because the system now relies on self reporting from RAT tests Uh, that's not obvious. The RAT tests have massive false positive rates compared with PCR tests. Do they follow up a rapid antigen test with PCR? The chinese vaccine is garbage too. Even the official numbers are not great, but some countries which bought the Chinese vaccine tried to return it because many batches that they got failed QA tests.

rubatuga 5y ago
I think you mean false negative? There are very little false positives.
procinct 5y ago
Yes, they follow it up with a PCR

0xy 5y ago

NZ doesn't look like it has "ruled out lockdowns", considering your current "restrictions" (politically rebranded lockdowns, because lockdowns are extremely unpopular) are far more strict than most US states have ever had. [1] It includes insane requirements like requiring face masks in certain outdoor areas. Forcing children to wear masks in schools at 96% vaccinated sounds insane when vaccinations were pitched as a way to end lockdowns permanently. Did your government just bait and switch the population by keeping "restrictions" after a huge majority of the population got vaccinated? Sure seems like it. [1] https://covid19.govt.nz/traffic-lights/life-at-red/ https://covid19.govt.nz/traffic-lights/life-at-red/

jrapdx3 5y ago

This is very interesting. According to stats provided here [0], 77.5% of New Zealand's population are "fully vaccinated" against COVID. I think differences probably due to selected reference population, your figure is percent of eligible (>=12yo) whereas the number I found is per whole population (including those < 12yo). In any case 77.5% is pretty impressive, by comparison the US fully vax percent is lower at 65.2%/total population. Also NZ confirmed cases == 7.0% of population, US == 24.2%. Big difference there. Not sure what set of factors accounts for diff in cases rate. NZ may well have done more to keep the virus from spreading. On the whole though many more questions about COVID than answers. I'd also guess data collection and reporting practices vary a lot by region or country. Makes data hard to compare and in turn makes it hard to assess what works and what doesn't. I'm keeping a good thought better solutions will emerge. [0] https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

DiogenesKynikos 5y ago

Mainland China's overall vaccination rate is about 90%, but there's a steep fall-off in the highest age groups. For whatever reason, old people have been much more hesitant about getting vaccinated, and only about 50% of people aged 80+ are vaccinated. Hopefully, there will be a push to convince the elderly to get vaccinated, and this outbreak might change a lot of minds.