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I agree that the scope and scale of these sanctions are beyond anything I think we've seen before. However, I don't think that invalidates the question 'how ef

by blihp 5y ago

I agree that the scope and scale of these sanctions are beyond anything I think we've seen before. However, I don't think that invalidates the question 'how effective are they really?' Let's not fool ourselves into thinking they will act as a short-term deterrent as current events are showing. Sure, they may very well cripple and/or even lead to the collapse of Putin's regime given enough time. (i.e. likely years or more) That's not much help to Ukraine in the time frame they have to operate in.

verve_rat 5y ago
No, they might not help Ukraine, but they might stop the next one from happening.
- blihp 5y ago
  Not likely as long as Russia has at least one major trading partner (i.e. China) who can redirect critical goods to them. If all major trading partners cut them off, then possibly.
- ReptileMan 5y ago
  Doubt it. The US will never get punishment for Iraq and Afghanistan so the precedent of we go to war because we really want to will stay. The lesson will be - be better prepared.
  - verve_rat 5y ago
    For anyone with a brain watching the lesson will be: you get to invade other countries when you have enough friends, or at least, not enough opposition. Which has been the case since countries started being a thing.
mannerheim 5y ago
It would certainly help Ukraine if Russia is deprived of the parts and material it needs to maintain equipment. E.g., Russian airlines will soon be in dire straits as sanctions are cutting off their access to vital replacement parts; sanctions could have a similar effect for Russia's air force.
sofixa 5y ago
The Russian economy might very well implode soon ( weeks to months), and the rapid disappearance of many brands and types of products from the Russian market is probably highly unpopular with the population. If they're forced to send in reservists ( which isn't out of the question seeing how the initial Russian advance is stalled on basically all fronts), that will only add to the growing resentment. There's historical precedent for forced conscripts to turn around and fight against the authority conscripting them ( French Revolution, Russian Revolutions and Civil War).
- 29athrowaway 5y ago
  Venezuela and Cuba have had sanctions for decades.
  - gassius 5y ago
    No. Venezuela had 'sanctions' starting on 2016, last year of Obama presidency. The scope of those sanctions is very limited to SOME individuals either in the Government and some business associates. There is no general embargo. And while the political scenario seems to no have changed very much, at least on the name and faces, the sanctions are the clear starting point on a big economic change that happened on 2018, where the economy opened up and was unofficially dollarized, probably by those who were not longer able to easily extract those dollars and euros into the US and EU (and fiscal paradises)like they were use to do. In this case, the sanctions had improved millions of lives and I guess that is good enough
  - sofixa 5y ago
    Not to the same extent they haven't, and even if that were not the case, there's a big difference - Russia was a developed-ish country. People have Internet everywhere, mobile phones, computers, gadgets, Netflix, Spotify, etc. Lots of heavy industry relying on imported machinery. Lots of exports. Cuba, North Korea didn't have any of those. Venezuela and Iran only share the export-reliant economy bit. If the goal is to make the population turn on Putin's regime, sanctions are more likely to work here than ever before.
tpm 5y ago
They will cripple russian industry (already some factories stopped production) including parts of military production, which in itself means they are at least somewhat effective.

by blihp 5y ago

verve_rat 5y ago

No, they might not help Ukraine, but they might stop the next one from happening.

blihp 5y ago
Not likely as long as Russia has at least one major trading partner (i.e. China) who can redirect critical goods to them. If all major trading partners cut them off, then possibly.
ReptileMan 5y ago
Doubt it. The US will never get punishment for Iraq and Afghanistan so the precedent of we go to war because we really want to will stay. The lesson will be - be better prepared.
- verve_rat 5y ago
  For anyone with a brain watching the lesson will be: you get to invade other countries when you have enough friends, or at least, not enough opposition. Which has been the case since countries started being a thing.

mannerheim 5y ago

It would certainly help Ukraine if Russia is deprived of the parts and material it needs to maintain equipment. E.g., Russian airlines will soon be in dire straits as sanctions are cutting off their access to vital replacement parts; sanctions could have a similar effect for Russia's air force.

sofixa 5y ago

The Russian economy might very well implode soon ( weeks to months), and the rapid disappearance of many brands and types of products from the Russian market is probably highly unpopular with the population. If they're forced to send in reservists ( which isn't out of the question seeing how the initial Russian advance is stalled on basically all fronts), that will only add to the growing resentment. There's historical precedent for forced conscripts to turn around and fight against the authority conscripting them ( French Revolution, Russian Revolutions and Civil War).

29athrowaway 5y ago
Venezuela and Cuba have had sanctions for decades.
- gassius 5y ago
  No. Venezuela had 'sanctions' starting on 2016, last year of Obama presidency. The scope of those sanctions is very limited to SOME individuals either in the Government and some business associates. There is no general embargo. And while the political scenario seems to no have changed very much, at least on the name and faces, the sanctions are the clear starting point on a big economic change that happened on 2018, where the economy opened up and was unofficially dollarized, probably by those who were not longer able to easily extract those dollars and euros into the US and EU (and fiscal paradises)like they were use to do. In this case, the sanctions had improved millions of lives and I guess that is good enough
- sofixa 5y ago
  Not to the same extent they haven't, and even if that were not the case, there's a big difference - Russia was a developed-ish country. People have Internet everywhere, mobile phones, computers, gadgets, Netflix, Spotify, etc. Lots of heavy industry relying on imported machinery. Lots of exports. Cuba, North Korea didn't have any of those. Venezuela and Iran only share the export-reliant economy bit. If the goal is to make the population turn on Putin's regime, sanctions are more likely to work here than ever before.

tpm 5y ago

They will cripple russian industry (already some factories stopped production) including parts of military production, which in itself means they are at least somewhat effective.