5 ms·

Why are they locking down for a variant that is less severe? Why aren't they accepting this is the best we'll get, and the sooner omicron becomes endemic the be

Why are they locking down for a variant that is less severe? Why aren't they accepting this is the best we'll get, and the sooner omicron becomes endemic the better. Rip off the bandaid.

user_named 5y ago
I mentioned this in my OP. It is becoming clear also to policy makers that these measures are not enough for omicron, and also are not logical when the strain is so mild.
- a-dub 5y ago
  i imagine that 0-covid is a point of pride for politicians and government officials. do you think there will be no issue in having the agility to completely reverse course?
  - user_named 5y ago
    I think the public will agree with softer measures a few months from now as it becomes clear that getting locked down is worse than getting this strain. There are already mentions in the media about this.
- em500 5y ago
  Omicron is not "so mild". It appeared to be mild in many other countries due to high vaccination rates and/or prior infections/deaths. This is not the case in China, where prior infections are very rare. And although the headline stats for the initial 2-dose vaccination rates are good, they didn't use the more effective mRNA vaccines, probably don't have a high recent booster rate, and most crucially, the vaccination rates among the elderly is relatively low. Look at Hong Kong for a sobering example. They've never had any large outbreak during the entire pandemic until two months ago. Now they're averaging almost 200 Covid deaths per day, on a population of 7 million. Per capita this is worse than the peak of the Alpha and Delta waves in the US or UK. If a big outbreak like Hong Kong happens in China, they might be facing 50k+ deaths per day.
  - user_named 5y ago
    Hong Kong and mainland are totally different. Vaccination rate is very high here and you have been able to get booster shots for months. I agree with your second paragraph though.
    - snovv_crash 5y ago
      I've heard this (and thought this myself), so many times regarding Covid - "Oh, that won't happen to us, we're different". Whether it was China, or Italy, or South Africa. At this point I don't think there's any way to actually stop Omicron, and we're very lucky it isn't more deadly.
      - user_named 5y ago
        What I'm saying is that mainland is nothing like hk when it comes to attitude and vaccination rates.
    - ksec 5y ago
      >Vaccination rate is very high here On the assumption that sinovax vaccination works. Which as far as I am aware. It doesn't.
captainmuon 5y ago
If there is no case in your region, then strict measures means life as usual. If you have a case, then you and your contacts need to quarantine. Contact tracing is extremely effective for Corona. Also remember that most people don't infect anybody, but few people are very contagious. This is to an extent still true for Omicron. The calculation for China is: inconvenience a small fraction of people, save thousands of lives - even though Omicron is mild, you can still have complications. And China is huge, so a small probability multiplies. They likely prevent millions of cases of long covid. And keep their economy going, where western countries had losses. Imagine the opposite question: Should they sacrifice thousands of people, and billions of dollars, so a fraction of a percent don't have to spend two weeks in lockdown? Popular support seems to be completely for the lockdown measures. In fact, I think some of it is really over the top (the hazmat suites, the lockdown hotels, stopping a train mid-route because of a suspected contact...) but they do it because the people demand it, not because it is strictly neccessary.
- user_named 5y ago
  This is on point.
- snovv_crash 5y ago
  These techniques worked for earlier variants, but Omicron is too virulent. I'm not sure how long it will take for China to realise this.
- easytiger 5y ago
  Getting a common cold is not dangerous to practically anyone. To assert that suppression of a common cold virus is state sanctioned murder is not appropriate. And a people built by a brutal, and frankly evil, regime are not the best arbiters of rational response to totalitariansim.
  - DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
    This "common cold" has already killed over 100k people in the US since New Years Day.

Why are they locking down for a variant that is less severe? Why aren't they accepting this is the best we'll get, and the sooner omicron becomes endemic the better. Rip off the bandaid.

user_named 5y ago

I mentioned this in my OP. It is becoming clear also to policy makers that these measures are not enough for omicron, and also are not logical when the strain is so mild.

a-dub 5y ago
i imagine that 0-covid is a point of pride for politicians and government officials. do you think there will be no issue in having the agility to completely reverse course?
- user_named 5y ago
  I think the public will agree with softer measures a few months from now as it becomes clear that getting locked down is worse than getting this strain. There are already mentions in the media about this.
em500 5y ago
Omicron is not "so mild". It appeared to be mild in many other countries due to high vaccination rates and/or prior infections/deaths. This is not the case in China, where prior infections are very rare. And although the headline stats for the initial 2-dose vaccination rates are good, they didn't use the more effective mRNA vaccines, probably don't have a high recent booster rate, and most crucially, the vaccination rates among the elderly is relatively low. Look at Hong Kong for a sobering example. They've never had any large outbreak during the entire pandemic until two months ago. Now they're averaging almost 200 Covid deaths per day, on a population of 7 million. Per capita this is worse than the peak of the Alpha and Delta waves in the US or UK. If a big outbreak like Hong Kong happens in China, they might be facing 50k+ deaths per day.
- user_named 5y ago
  Hong Kong and mainland are totally different. Vaccination rate is very high here and you have been able to get booster shots for months. I agree with your second paragraph though.
  - snovv_crash 5y ago
    I've heard this (and thought this myself), so many times regarding Covid - "Oh, that won't happen to us, we're different". Whether it was China, or Italy, or South Africa. At this point I don't think there's any way to actually stop Omicron, and we're very lucky it isn't more deadly.
    - user_named 5y ago
      What I'm saying is that mainland is nothing like hk when it comes to attitude and vaccination rates.
  - ksec 5y ago
    >Vaccination rate is very high here On the assumption that sinovax vaccination works. Which as far as I am aware. It doesn't.

captainmuon 5y ago

If there is no case in your region, then strict measures means life as usual. If you have a case, then you and your contacts need to quarantine. Contact tracing is extremely effective for Corona. Also remember that most people don't infect anybody, but few people are very contagious. This is to an extent still true for Omicron. The calculation for China is: inconvenience a small fraction of people, save thousands of lives - even though Omicron is mild, you can still have complications. And China is huge, so a small probability multiplies. They likely prevent millions of cases of long covid. And keep their economy going, where western countries had losses. Imagine the opposite question: Should they sacrifice thousands of people, and billions of dollars, so a fraction of a percent don't have to spend two weeks in lockdown? Popular support seems to be completely for the lockdown measures. In fact, I think some of it is really over the top (the hazmat suites, the lockdown hotels, stopping a train mid-route because of a suspected contact...) but they do it because the people demand it, not because it is strictly neccessary.

user_named 5y ago
This is on point.
snovv_crash 5y ago
These techniques worked for earlier variants, but Omicron is too virulent. I'm not sure how long it will take for China to realise this.
easytiger 5y ago
Getting a common cold is not dangerous to practically anyone. To assert that suppression of a common cold virus is state sanctioned murder is not appropriate. And a people built by a brutal, and frankly evil, regime are not the best arbiters of rational response to totalitariansim.
- DiogenesKynikos 5y ago
  This "common cold" has already killed over 100k people in the US since New Years Day.