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It's not entirely painless for the West, given Russia's key position as supplier of wheat, fertilizer, and natural gas. Inflation will be kicking around for a w

It's not entirely painless for the West, given Russia's key position as supplier of wheat, fertilizer, and natural gas. Inflation will be kicking around for a while (even without trillion dollar stimulus programs) and creating economic distress for most.

OrvalWintermute 5y ago
I don't think we have even started to experience the truly massive food price shocks. Was listening to a farmer talk the other day about nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. These prices are going through the roof, in some cases, 300% or higher increases. The price shocks are going to hurt lots of people. Their people. Our people.
- laichzeit0 5y ago
  In the short term. By short term I mean historical short term. Anything less than 10 years is short and insignificant. Hopefully by then the entire world can be independent of Russia in perpetuity and it can wither away completely isolated from the West for eternity.
- thriftwy 5y ago
  Food is still very, very cheap and people take that for granted. Oil is 30% of Russia's exports but wheat is a wee 2%. What if it grows to 20%, with tenfold price increase?
  - OrvalWintermute 5y ago
    > Oil is 30% of Russia's exports but wheat is a wee 2%. What if it grows to 20%, with tenfold price increase? Oil/Fuel is not the only exports, as many petroleum/gas based products are not fuel [1] If fertilizer is one of the majority costs of growing food in the US, and we cut out 50% of the world's supply, then our costs will go through the roof. Uneffected suppliers such as our friends to the North in Canada will also raise their prices, as supply/demand curve will change. While I know most of us technical folks are well compensated, there are lots of poor people working paycheck to paycheck. A big price shock could mean some people starve. I don't want anyone to go hungry [1] https://www.boisestatepublicradio.org/politics-government/2022-03-11/russians-freeze-on-fertilizer-exports-is-yet-another-challenge-for-mountain-west-farmers https://www.boisestatepublicradio.org/politics-government/20...
paganel 5y ago
It will also hurt Europe when it comes to migration. Much more expensive food means potential famine in large swaths of Africa and in some places in the Middle East, means people willing to risk it all in order to escape famine, means migration to Europe at any costs.

OrvalWintermute 5y ago

I don't think we have even started to experience the truly massive food price shocks. Was listening to a farmer talk the other day about nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. These prices are going through the roof, in some cases, 300% or higher increases. The price shocks are going to hurt lots of people. Their people. Our people.

laichzeit0 5y ago
In the short term. By short term I mean historical short term. Anything less than 10 years is short and insignificant. Hopefully by then the entire world can be independent of Russia in perpetuity and it can wither away completely isolated from the West for eternity.
thriftwy 5y ago
Food is still very, very cheap and people take that for granted. Oil is 30% of Russia's exports but wheat is a wee 2%. What if it grows to 20%, with tenfold price increase?
- OrvalWintermute 5y ago
  > Oil is 30% of Russia's exports but wheat is a wee 2%. What if it grows to 20%, with tenfold price increase? Oil/Fuel is not the only exports, as many petroleum/gas based products are not fuel [1] If fertilizer is one of the majority costs of growing food in the US, and we cut out 50% of the world's supply, then our costs will go through the roof. Uneffected suppliers such as our friends to the North in Canada will also raise their prices, as supply/demand curve will change. While I know most of us technical folks are well compensated, there are lots of poor people working paycheck to paycheck. A big price shock could mean some people starve. I don't want anyone to go hungry [1] https://www.boisestatepublicradio.org/politics-government/2022-03-11/russians-freeze-on-fertilizer-exports-is-yet-another-challenge-for-mountain-west-farmers https://www.boisestatepublicradio.org/politics-government/20...

paganel 5y ago

It will also hurt Europe when it comes to migration. Much more expensive food means potential famine in large swaths of Africa and in some places in the Middle East, means people willing to risk it all in order to escape famine, means migration to Europe at any costs.