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> Is him asking Xi all that different than Bush asking Tony Blair before Iraq? I would argue yes. Bush was looking for a "coalition of the willing" to go along

by myko 5y ago

> Is him asking Xi all that different than Bush asking Tony Blair before Iraq? I would argue yes. Bush was looking for a "coalition of the willing" to go along with his lies about why it was necessary to invade. AFAICT Putin wasn't trying to get China to join in the war on Ukraine. He moved the war to accommodate China. Bush would have invaded either way, it seems, given allies like France called him out and refused. > At the UN security council, Russia and China are always vetoeing measures and they like to back each other up. The link mentions China's reticence to back Russia up on the world stage here, specifically by abstaining from relevant votes at the UN instead of voting with Russia. Putin misjudged this as well. > It's not that Putin asked for permission but that he did not want complete isolation. This is reasonable, but it seems like Xi set Putin's timeline for invasion here to after the olympics, so there was some level of getting permission / obsequiousness to China. It seems like Putin expected more help and is not getting it. > Whether russia wins or loses, China wins Yes, I agree here. Russia has been completely marginalized by Putin's decisions. China comes out looking very reasonable. > The greatest geopolitical mistake the west made was to take on both Russia and China at the same time. I might be naive but I don't see that happening at the moment? > the west cannot afford to fight China on any front anytime soon. I don't really think this was on the table, barring an invasion of Taiwan. In any case most folks place Russia's military above China's in capability, and Russia's military seems extremely ill-prepared to wage modern combat.

forum_ghost 5y ago
What would China, India, Pakistan, and the other 30 some countries that abstained from voting on a meaningless non-binding motion gain by voting NO instead? The signal couldn’t be any clearer as is. Countries that represent over two billion people, higher combined GDP and military spending than the US, aren’t backing the West. Pax Americana is over.
- myko 5y ago
  That's a really interesting perspective. I find it more interesting that Russia's largest ally, China, did not back them up. Heartening, actually.
  - forum_ghost 5y ago
    Did not back them up at the UN or these news headlines about China not helping Russia with this or that? From what it seems, China is absolutely helping them in actions, while pretending to be neutral, and they’ll do everything to maintain the appearance of neutrality. China even has state-owned, single-purpose banks that don’t touch USD at all, specifically for sanction-busting. Russian banks are now issuing UnionPay cards, apparently. India, supposedly a US ally in the region, buys most of their military hardware from Russia. Turkey, a NATO country, also buys weapons from Russia, and openly refused to implement sanctions. Pakistan, under pressure from tons of 20+ diplomats, openly defied them and did not vote YES, either, and then their PM went to visit Putin. South Korea refused to implement EU/US sanctions, and instead sought to be exempt, and implement their own, supposedly equivalent, sanctions. That’s another way to circumvent sanctions, as the final regulations and loopholes could be quite different, despite being legally “equivalent”. The West will of course down play all of this, but it seems the unipolar days are history.
    - myko 5y ago
      > Did not back them up at the UN or these news headlines about China not helping Russia with this or that? Both. > From what it seems, China is absolutely helping them in actions, China is helping Russia just enough to ensure the Russian state becomes a client of China. This is a major reshaping of their relationship and a huge strategic blunder on Putin's part. He really screwed up here. This was the entire thrust of my original comment, which you don't seem to disagree with? > India, supposedly a US ally in the region India and Russia are closer allies than India and the US, at the government level. They have a "special and privileged strategic partnership". There is no surprise, here. > Turkey, a NATO country, also buys weapons from Russia, and openly refused to implement sanctions. Erdogan has been more friendly with Russia than the US for a few years now. The war in Ukraine seems to have strained this relationship, though. It seems Erdogan is trying to play the fence, here. https://www.reuters.com/world/erdogan-says-too-early-comment-more-russian-arms-purchases-given-ukraine-war-2022-03-14/ https://www.reuters.com/world/erdogan-says-too-early-comment... > The West will of course down play all of this, but it seems the unipolar days are history. I don't understand your point here. Are you saying Russia is fine and the west has screwed up? What did the west do wrong, here, in your opinion? What did Russia do wrong? Should Putin have expected any negative consequences for his actions? AFAICT, the US/EU alliance seems to be a lot stronger than Putin thought, and the condemnation globally has been much harsher than Putin planned on. I don't know or care about "Pax Americana" or what have you - I'm glad Biden has let the EU take center stage in responding to a war of aggression in the European theater. Putin has strengthened the ties of the west, it's just sad it took him murdering Ukrainians to do it.

by myko 5y ago

forum_ghost 5y ago

What would China, India, Pakistan, and the other 30 some countries that abstained from voting on a meaningless non-binding motion gain by voting NO instead? The signal couldn’t be any clearer as is. Countries that represent over two billion people, higher combined GDP and military spending than the US, aren’t backing the West. Pax Americana is over.

myko 5y ago
That's a really interesting perspective. I find it more interesting that Russia's largest ally, China, did not back them up. Heartening, actually.
- forum_ghost 5y ago
  Did not back them up at the UN or these news headlines about China not helping Russia with this or that? From what it seems, China is absolutely helping them in actions, while pretending to be neutral, and they’ll do everything to maintain the appearance of neutrality. China even has state-owned, single-purpose banks that don’t touch USD at all, specifically for sanction-busting. Russian banks are now issuing UnionPay cards, apparently. India, supposedly a US ally in the region, buys most of their military hardware from Russia. Turkey, a NATO country, also buys weapons from Russia, and openly refused to implement sanctions. Pakistan, under pressure from tons of 20+ diplomats, openly defied them and did not vote YES, either, and then their PM went to visit Putin. South Korea refused to implement EU/US sanctions, and instead sought to be exempt, and implement their own, supposedly equivalent, sanctions. That’s another way to circumvent sanctions, as the final regulations and loopholes could be quite different, despite being legally “equivalent”. The West will of course down play all of this, but it seems the unipolar days are history.
  - myko 5y ago
    > Did not back them up at the UN or these news headlines about China not helping Russia with this or that? Both. > From what it seems, China is absolutely helping them in actions, China is helping Russia just enough to ensure the Russian state becomes a client of China. This is a major reshaping of their relationship and a huge strategic blunder on Putin's part. He really screwed up here. This was the entire thrust of my original comment, which you don't seem to disagree with? > India, supposedly a US ally in the region India and Russia are closer allies than India and the US, at the government level. They have a "special and privileged strategic partnership". There is no surprise, here. > Turkey, a NATO country, also buys weapons from Russia, and openly refused to implement sanctions. Erdogan has been more friendly with Russia than the US for a few years now. The war in Ukraine seems to have strained this relationship, though. It seems Erdogan is trying to play the fence, here. https://www.reuters.com/world/erdogan-says-too-early-comment-more-russian-arms-purchases-given-ukraine-war-2022-03-14/ https://www.reuters.com/world/erdogan-says-too-early-comment... > The West will of course down play all of this, but it seems the unipolar days are history. I don't understand your point here. Are you saying Russia is fine and the west has screwed up? What did the west do wrong, here, in your opinion? What did Russia do wrong? Should Putin have expected any negative consequences for his actions? AFAICT, the US/EU alliance seems to be a lot stronger than Putin thought, and the condemnation globally has been much harsher than Putin planned on. I don't know or care about "Pax Americana" or what have you - I'm glad Biden has let the EU take center stage in responding to a war of aggression in the European theater. Putin has strengthened the ties of the west, it's just sad it took him murdering Ukrainians to do it.