5 ms·

It's interesting that Putin asked Xi for permission before invading. Putin seems set on trying to make Russia into a world power but with this move he seems to

by myko 5y ago

It's interesting that Putin asked Xi for permission before invading. Putin seems set on trying to make Russia into a world power but with this move he seems to have completely neutered that possibility in the near term, and cemented Russia's reliance on China as a "big brother" on the world stage. Just incredible miscalculations on his part.

_8j50 5y ago
Maybe he cares less about perception than practical effect? Militarily, their nukes will always be a thing. Economically, neither putin nor anyone else serious was under the assumption that Russia's economy was great. Is him asking Xi all that different than Bush asking Tony Blair before Iraq? At the UN security council, Russia and China are always vetoeing measures and they like to back each other up. It's not that Putin asked for permission but that he did not want complete isolation. On China's part, their espionage operations in the west are very telling in that it reveals their strategy a bit. They want dirt on everyone and they want to understand the west to achieve long term victory. Whether russia wins or loses, China wins because they get to observe who does what. When it comes time to invade taiwan or south china sea, they will be well prepared and they will know which pressure points to press in the west. The greatest geopolitical mistake the west made was to take on both Russia and China at the same time. At any time one of them have to be your friend if you want to overpower the other. Putin or not Russia will not be friendly to the west. Their nukes and largest land mass of any country bordering america, europe and china means the west cannot afford to fight China on any front anytime soon.
- cinntaile 5y ago
  > Is him asking Xi all that different than Bush asking Tony Blair before Iraq? Big guy asking small guy suggests a very different power game compared to small guy asking big guy?
  - _8j50 5y ago
    To the public it seems that way but in reality US,Russia and China having all those nukes and huge land mass theit leaders always see themselves as the big guy. Have you seen Putin at G11? He has to be at the center when they take pictures because of his ego. Hard to believe him considering himself lesser than Xi.
- myko 5y ago
  > Is him asking Xi all that different than Bush asking Tony Blair before Iraq? I would argue yes. Bush was looking for a "coalition of the willing" to go along with his lies about why it was necessary to invade. AFAICT Putin wasn't trying to get China to join in the war on Ukraine. He moved the war to accommodate China. Bush would have invaded either way, it seems, given allies like France called him out and refused. > At the UN security council, Russia and China are always vetoeing measures and they like to back each other up. The link mentions China's reticence to back Russia up on the world stage here, specifically by abstaining from relevant votes at the UN instead of voting with Russia. Putin misjudged this as well. > It's not that Putin asked for permission but that he did not want complete isolation. This is reasonable, but it seems like Xi set Putin's timeline for invasion here to after the olympics, so there was some level of getting permission / obsequiousness to China. It seems like Putin expected more help and is not getting it. > Whether russia wins or loses, China wins Yes, I agree here. Russia has been completely marginalized by Putin's decisions. China comes out looking very reasonable. > The greatest geopolitical mistake the west made was to take on both Russia and China at the same time. I might be naive but I don't see that happening at the moment? > the west cannot afford to fight China on any front anytime soon. I don't really think this was on the table, barring an invasion of Taiwan. In any case most folks place Russia's military above China's in capability, and Russia's military seems extremely ill-prepared to wage modern combat.
  - forum_ghost 5y ago
    What would China, India, Pakistan, and the other 30 some countries that abstained from voting on a meaningless non-binding motion gain by voting NO instead? The signal couldn’t be any clearer as is. Countries that represent over two billion people, higher combined GDP and military spending than the US, aren’t backing the West. Pax Americana is over.
    - myko 5y ago
      That's a really interesting perspective. I find it more interesting that Russia's largest ally, China, did not back them up. Heartening, actually.

by myko 5y ago

_8j50 5y ago

Maybe he cares less about perception than practical effect? Militarily, their nukes will always be a thing. Economically, neither putin nor anyone else serious was under the assumption that Russia's economy was great. Is him asking Xi all that different than Bush asking Tony Blair before Iraq? At the UN security council, Russia and China are always vetoeing measures and they like to back each other up. It's not that Putin asked for permission but that he did not want complete isolation. On China's part, their espionage operations in the west are very telling in that it reveals their strategy a bit. They want dirt on everyone and they want to understand the west to achieve long term victory. Whether russia wins or loses, China wins because they get to observe who does what. When it comes time to invade taiwan or south china sea, they will be well prepared and they will know which pressure points to press in the west. The greatest geopolitical mistake the west made was to take on both Russia and China at the same time. At any time one of them have to be your friend if you want to overpower the other. Putin or not Russia will not be friendly to the west. Their nukes and largest land mass of any country bordering america, europe and china means the west cannot afford to fight China on any front anytime soon.

cinntaile 5y ago
> Is him asking Xi all that different than Bush asking Tony Blair before Iraq? Big guy asking small guy suggests a very different power game compared to small guy asking big guy?
- _8j50 5y ago
  To the public it seems that way but in reality US,Russia and China having all those nukes and huge land mass theit leaders always see themselves as the big guy. Have you seen Putin at G11? He has to be at the center when they take pictures because of his ego. Hard to believe him considering himself lesser than Xi.
myko 5y ago
> Is him asking Xi all that different than Bush asking Tony Blair before Iraq? I would argue yes. Bush was looking for a "coalition of the willing" to go along with his lies about why it was necessary to invade. AFAICT Putin wasn't trying to get China to join in the war on Ukraine. He moved the war to accommodate China. Bush would have invaded either way, it seems, given allies like France called him out and refused. > At the UN security council, Russia and China are always vetoeing measures and they like to back each other up. The link mentions China's reticence to back Russia up on the world stage here, specifically by abstaining from relevant votes at the UN instead of voting with Russia. Putin misjudged this as well. > It's not that Putin asked for permission but that he did not want complete isolation. This is reasonable, but it seems like Xi set Putin's timeline for invasion here to after the olympics, so there was some level of getting permission / obsequiousness to China. It seems like Putin expected more help and is not getting it. > Whether russia wins or loses, China wins Yes, I agree here. Russia has been completely marginalized by Putin's decisions. China comes out looking very reasonable. > The greatest geopolitical mistake the west made was to take on both Russia and China at the same time. I might be naive but I don't see that happening at the moment? > the west cannot afford to fight China on any front anytime soon. I don't really think this was on the table, barring an invasion of Taiwan. In any case most folks place Russia's military above China's in capability, and Russia's military seems extremely ill-prepared to wage modern combat.
- forum_ghost 5y ago
  What would China, India, Pakistan, and the other 30 some countries that abstained from voting on a meaningless non-binding motion gain by voting NO instead? The signal couldn’t be any clearer as is. Countries that represent over two billion people, higher combined GDP and military spending than the US, aren’t backing the West. Pax Americana is over.
  - myko 5y ago
    That's a really interesting perspective. I find it more interesting that Russia's largest ally, China, did not back them up. Heartening, actually.