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I agree that Putin could be looking for an excuse to pull back but this doesn't seem like the right one. His story is that Russians support him. He has to be a

I agree that Putin could be looking for an excuse to pull back but this doesn't seem like the right one. His story is that Russians support him. He has to be able to claim some sort of victory that fits with the denazification/liberation/"Ukrainian people love Russia" narratives. Maybe he'll be satisfied to turn Ukraine into cold war Germany with a wall through the middle of Kiev? But even if he finds a way to pull out and save face, will the sanctions be lifted? I can't see that happening. It's not ok to go blow up your neighbor's cities then just pack up and go home. There would have to be reparations and Putin is clearly never going to agree with that.

zozbot234 5y ago
He could claim "mission accomplished" and have at least a colorable argument that he's right. Reparations could be covertly agreed to and take the form of, e.g. significant liberal/pro-market reforms in both Russia and Ukraine to create a real, workable long-term alternative to NATO and perhaps even EU membership. Think the Chinese development model. That would mean Putin effectively gets the Russian Empire redux he wants, and stops squandering these countries' hidden long-term potential.