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Rumours are that this is retaliation from Iran for the American seizure of Iranian vessels a few days ago, as well as for Israel killing 2 Iranian servicemen in

Rumours are that this is retaliation from Iran for the American seizure of Iranian vessels a few days ago, as well as for Israel killing 2 Iranian servicemen in Syria (supposedly, Israel is operating on the Erbil base). The more interesting thing however is that the US SAMs failed once again to intercept the SRBMs. If really US air defences can't intercept SRBMs reliably, the US Navy is in gigantic, perhaps even existential, trouble.

ZanyProgrammer 5y ago
You’re making speculative leaps of logic based on jack shit as evidence.
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  How so?
  - ZanyProgrammer 5y ago
    Are you totally sure the same systems that defend US naval vessels are present in Erbil, Iraq?
    - sudosysgen 5y ago
      They definitely aren't. Supposedly there is Patriot and C-RAM, whereas warships use AEGIS. However, Patriot is based on largely the same technology as AEGIS (PESA engagement radar, TVM, Hit-to-kill capability, etc...), is supposed to have a high kill probability against these targets, and like the SM-3, is made by Raytheon. So if Patriot can't intercept SRBMs reliably, it's unlikely that another missile system made by the same company using the same technology could intercept MRBMs reliably.
      - tyingq 5y ago
        >largely the same technology At a high level right? Like both "PESA" radars, but completely different implementations. Similar, but not at all the same missles, etc. And it's not clear a Patriot system was in Irbil, in the right spot anyway, right? So this all could mean something, but that's unclear.
        sudosysgen 5y ago
        It seems the air defences were indeed in Erbil: https://globalcomment.com/how-effective-air-defences-in-iraqi-kurdistans-erbil-airport-reduce-risk-of-escalation-between-us-and-iran-backed-militias/ https://globalcomment.com/how-effective-air-defences-in-iraq... As far as implementation, yes of course the implementation would be different, but it bears to notice it is made by the same company. Is it really reasonable to expect Raytheon to fail at making competent air defences and greatly overstate their capabilities for Patriot, whereas their naval missiles are nearly perfect?
babyshake 5y ago
Is the suggestion that the USAF/Navy was previously better at intercepting SRBMs? What would have changed to make it worse - I would assume this sort of thing would be improving every few years.
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  No, it's newer weapons that cause this to be necessary while it wasn't needed previously. Historically, ballistic missiles were not accurate enough to hit a moving a ship. Nowadays, they are. It also used to be the case that SRBMs and MRBMs weren't able to acquire a target on their own - the plasma would interfere with radar, and optical sensors were completely unfeasible. However, it seems China and Russia managed to find a way to keep radar working. That wasn't that big of a problem either, because a warship should be able to jam the radar, but last year the Chinese claimed to have managed to get optical guidance work on an MRBM (DF-21D). It also used to be the case that finding large surface warship was unpractical, but modern satellites can spot them even from GEO while LEO SAR and optical satellites exploded in numbers, meaning that it's now possible to track large surface warships accurately around the clock. If that is actually the case, and it seems likely, then unless the US Navy gets very good at intercepting ballistic missiles, the entire fleet, and perhaps even the entire concept of large surface warships, may become untractable.
  - steve_adams_86 5y ago
    I don’t know anything but my understanding is that large surface warships have become mostly obsolete because it’s far cheaper and easier to destroy them today than it is to build, use, and defend them. I’m not well versed in this stuff, but I’ve read several compelling pieces which argue this point.
    - sofixa 5y ago
      That has been argued since the Jeune École doctrine emerged in the 19th century, with first small and fast torpedo boats, and then submarines. It hasn't been proven right, with all big conflicts including sea faring nations since then having big surface ships playing a part at least blockading ( Russo-Japanese war, the World Wars, Korean war, Vietnam war, Gulf wars).
cheaprentalyeti 5y ago
>The more interesting thing however is that the US SAMs failed once again to intercept the SRBMs. If really US air defences can't intercept SRBMs reliably, the US Navy is in gigantic, perhaps even existential, trouble. I don't know if this has anything to do with that: "Biden Orders Major Reversal Of Trump’s Missile Battery Build-Up In Gulf" [0] >"A major “realignment” of US defense priorities is resulting in a new extended drawdown of troops, aircraft, and anti-aircraft missiles from the Middle East, The Wall Street journal says in a new report, especially a prior missile battery build-up under Trump in Saudi Arabia." The article mentions Iraq but not Erbil. [0]: https://zububrothers.com/2021/06/18/biden-orders-major-reversal-of-trumps-missile-battery-build-up-in-gulf/ https://zububrothers.com/2021/06/18/biden-orders-major-rever...
rascul 5y ago
> The more interesting thing however is that the US SAMs failed once again to intercept the SRBMs. If really US air defences can't intercept SRBMs reliably, the US Navy is in gigantic, perhaps even existential, trouble. I don't know if it shows a failure. Were there even appropriate air defenses in range? Edit for more info: If the launch location is as mentioned in a Twitter thread [0] then there's approximately 165 miles for the missile to travel. If the nearest US air defenses are in, say, Kuwait, that's over 500 miles to travel to intercept. I don't know where the US has their air defenses currently. [0] https://twitter.com/obretix/status/1502794434999730177 https://twitter.com/obretix/status/1502794434999730177
- rascul 5y ago
  > I don't know if it shows a failure. Were there even appropriate air defenses in range? Found one source [0] saying that there are Patriot and C-RAM systems in place at Erbil airport, from September 2021. I guess we'll have to wait for some official statement in the next few days. [0] https://globalcomment.com/how-effective-air-defences-in-iraqi-kurdistans-erbil-airport-reduce-risk-of-escalation-between-us-and-iran-backed-militias/ https://globalcomment.com/how-effective-air-defences-in-iraq...

ZanyProgrammer 5y ago

You’re making speculative leaps of logic based on jack shit as evidence.

sudosysgen 5y ago
How so?
- ZanyProgrammer 5y ago
  Are you totally sure the same systems that defend US naval vessels are present in Erbil, Iraq?
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    They definitely aren't. Supposedly there is Patriot and C-RAM, whereas warships use AEGIS. However, Patriot is based on largely the same technology as AEGIS (PESA engagement radar, TVM, Hit-to-kill capability, etc...), is supposed to have a high kill probability against these targets, and like the SM-3, is made by Raytheon. So if Patriot can't intercept SRBMs reliably, it's unlikely that another missile system made by the same company using the same technology could intercept MRBMs reliably.
    - tyingq 5y ago
      >largely the same technology At a high level right? Like both "PESA" radars, but completely different implementations. Similar, but not at all the same missles, etc. And it's not clear a Patriot system was in Irbil, in the right spot anyway, right? So this all could mean something, but that's unclear.
      - sudosysgen 5y ago
        It seems the air defences were indeed in Erbil: https://globalcomment.com/how-effective-air-defences-in-iraqi-kurdistans-erbil-airport-reduce-risk-of-escalation-between-us-and-iran-backed-militias/ https://globalcomment.com/how-effective-air-defences-in-iraq... As far as implementation, yes of course the implementation would be different, but it bears to notice it is made by the same company. Is it really reasonable to expect Raytheon to fail at making competent air defences and greatly overstate their capabilities for Patriot, whereas their naval missiles are nearly perfect?

babyshake 5y ago

Is the suggestion that the USAF/Navy was previously better at intercepting SRBMs? What would have changed to make it worse - I would assume this sort of thing would be improving every few years.

sudosysgen 5y ago
No, it's newer weapons that cause this to be necessary while it wasn't needed previously. Historically, ballistic missiles were not accurate enough to hit a moving a ship. Nowadays, they are. It also used to be the case that SRBMs and MRBMs weren't able to acquire a target on their own - the plasma would interfere with radar, and optical sensors were completely unfeasible. However, it seems China and Russia managed to find a way to keep radar working. That wasn't that big of a problem either, because a warship should be able to jam the radar, but last year the Chinese claimed to have managed to get optical guidance work on an MRBM (DF-21D). It also used to be the case that finding large surface warship was unpractical, but modern satellites can spot them even from GEO while LEO SAR and optical satellites exploded in numbers, meaning that it's now possible to track large surface warships accurately around the clock. If that is actually the case, and it seems likely, then unless the US Navy gets very good at intercepting ballistic missiles, the entire fleet, and perhaps even the entire concept of large surface warships, may become untractable.
- steve_adams_86 5y ago
  I don’t know anything but my understanding is that large surface warships have become mostly obsolete because it’s far cheaper and easier to destroy them today than it is to build, use, and defend them. I’m not well versed in this stuff, but I’ve read several compelling pieces which argue this point.
  - sofixa 5y ago
    That has been argued since the Jeune École doctrine emerged in the 19th century, with first small and fast torpedo boats, and then submarines. It hasn't been proven right, with all big conflicts including sea faring nations since then having big surface ships playing a part at least blockading ( Russo-Japanese war, the World Wars, Korean war, Vietnam war, Gulf wars).

cheaprentalyeti 5y ago

>The more interesting thing however is that the US SAMs failed once again to intercept the SRBMs. If really US air defences can't intercept SRBMs reliably, the US Navy is in gigantic, perhaps even existential, trouble. I don't know if this has anything to do with that: "Biden Orders Major Reversal Of Trump’s Missile Battery Build-Up In Gulf" [0] >"A major “realignment” of US defense priorities is resulting in a new extended drawdown of troops, aircraft, and anti-aircraft missiles from the Middle East, The Wall Street journal says in a new report, especially a prior missile battery build-up under Trump in Saudi Arabia." The article mentions Iraq but not Erbil. [0]: https://zububrothers.com/2021/06/18/biden-orders-major-reversal-of-trumps-missile-battery-build-up-in-gulf/ https://zububrothers.com/2021/06/18/biden-orders-major-rever...

rascul 5y ago

> The more interesting thing however is that the US SAMs failed once again to intercept the SRBMs. If really US air defences can't intercept SRBMs reliably, the US Navy is in gigantic, perhaps even existential, trouble. I don't know if it shows a failure. Were there even appropriate air defenses in range? Edit for more info: If the launch location is as mentioned in a Twitter thread [0] then there's approximately 165 miles for the missile to travel. If the nearest US air defenses are in, say, Kuwait, that's over 500 miles to travel to intercept. I don't know where the US has their air defenses currently. [0] https://twitter.com/obretix/status/1502794434999730177 https://twitter.com/obretix/status/1502794434999730177

rascul 5y ago
> I don't know if it shows a failure. Were there even appropriate air defenses in range? Found one source [0] saying that there are Patriot and C-RAM systems in place at Erbil airport, from September 2021. I guess we'll have to wait for some official statement in the next few days. [0] https://globalcomment.com/how-effective-air-defences-in-iraqi-kurdistans-erbil-airport-reduce-risk-of-escalation-between-us-and-iran-backed-militias/ https://globalcomment.com/how-effective-air-defences-in-iraq...