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> Ah. Is that the (sole) strategic goal, or is that a tactical threat - which many people believe useful for "improving" the situation? And perhaps also a feels
by Chyzwar 5y ago
> Ah. Is that the (sole) strategic goal, or is that a tactical threat - which many people believe useful for "improving" the situation? And perhaps also a feels-good, looks-good bandwagon that lots of people want to jump on at the moment?
Economic collapse in Russia would result in: Putin losing power, Russia losing war or at least retreat from Ukraine. Most likely, multiple bigger civil war started in Russia Federation.
> I'm thinking that most of the grown-up western leaders have a list of actual strategic goals, which looks more like this:
> - No nuclear weapons used, especially not at scale, nor against my country.
> - No nuclear weapons "lost" (to parties unknown) in a chaotic break-up of Russian state authority.
That why West can only help Ukraine indirectly and fight suing economic sanctions.
> - No massive/widespread economic collapses, wars, famine, etc. resulting in very large (say, 1+ million) deaths. Nor (say) 10+ million refugees.
> - No "large, ongoing" failed state situations.
Russia proven that they are European bandits and cannot be trusted. Nobody in EU will care about future of Russia.
> Russian's invasion of Ukraine clearly fails (short- or long-term) in the eyes of most Russian government & military leaders. Ditto most autocratic leaders in other nations, who might be tempted to stage invasions of their own.
You underestimate propaganda efforts. Most Russian still believe in military peace keeping action Donbas. Reality distortion is very strong there, sanctions are helping to get the message across.
> - Ukraine and its people are freed from Russian occupations / attacks / threats, and have a good opportunity to rebuild...preferably not too far in the future.
It is not so clear-cut. Once Belarus joins the war and French and German interest betray Eastern Europe, we can expect half of Ukraine lost and EU failing apart.
> - My, my party's, and my government's situations are improved (or at least not seriously degraded) by events related to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Most of Eastern Europe will benefit from the current situation.