4 ms·
"surrendering" is really not aanywhere in the spectrum in USA, historically. And, even though the "splitting and surviving" compromise seems almost inevitable
by phtrivier 5y ago
"surrendering" is really not aanywhere in the spectrum in USA, historically.
And, even though the "splitting and surviving" compromise seems almost inevitable to me, I have no idea how long it will take.
And I can't blame all parties (Russia / Ukraine / EU / NATO) for trying to "buy time" and reach the négociation table in the best possible situation.
I can imagine Putin would have preferred rolling over Kyiv, then negociate. But now all he has to do is bomb, turn kyev into "Alep on Dniepr", and wait it out.
Europe has six months of warmer weather to wait it out, before gas reserves become a problem again.
I don't if Biden will prefer entering midterms with or without a war abroad ? Can't say it will really bother him more than whatever domestic "October suprise" comes up.
Again, i don't know. But I would not book an Airbnb for a barbecue in eastern Europe this summer, If I were you.
(On the other hand, if you're into Nordics or Baltics, visit finland and Estonia NOW, they're next in line.)
- pphysch 5y agoTotal nonsense. Putin is not going to bomb Lviv, much less Estonia or Finland.
- ogogmad 5y agoCan you read the man's mind? Because the rest of us are struggling to, and are preparing for the worst.
- pphysch 5y agoNo, I just hear to what Moscow has been saying for the last 15yrs and relate it to facts on the ground. No need for armchair psychology.
- mopsi 5y agoWhy 15 years? You don't need to go futher back than to mid-February and see what they said about the invasion of Ukraine. Or even better, just a few days ago Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov said that there's no war in Ukraine. Trustworthy chap, no doubt.
- pphysch 5y ago> Why 15 years? 2007 MSC
- phtrivier 5y agoI agree that Lviv seems western enough to be spared bombing (since I assume Putin just want the east, and the attention over Kyiv.) Yeah, sure, Finland is fine, as soon as Putin would laid a hand on it, there would be a strong response from... Oh, wait no one. But Estonia, yeah, sure, NATO would jump to trigger WWWIII over Tallin. I can already picture Joe Biden explaining to US voters why they'll have to deal with a nuclear war because of the Baltics. Also, that the Baltics exist.
- BlueTemplar 5y agoIf NATO won't, then it's worthless. Also, even if USA gets cold feet, there's at least one nuclear armed country in Europe that can potentially get conquered by Russia down the line, and so would be more willing to act.
- phtrivier 5y agoDo you believe Putin will be detered by French or British nukes ? That's not who they're designed to deter. And yes, in this situation I fear NATO membership would prove worthless to Baltics. Turns out there is a "winning move" : being the only one to play.
- BlueTemplar 5y agoWhy wouldn't he be deterred by British/French nukes ? It doesn't take many of them to wipe out the biggest cities of any country...
- dragonwriter 5y ago> Putin is not going to bomb Lviv, Russia just conducted strikes in the area of Lviv.
- phtrivier 5y agoSorry...