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On 2, the diplomatic option has been on the table since the civil war started in 2014 (Minsk agreements). However, it is critical to understand that it is not m
by pphysch 5y ago
On 2, the diplomatic option has been on the table since the civil war started in 2014 (Minsk agreements). However, it is critical to understand that it is not merely "the Ukrainians" (i.e. the current Zelensky-Klitschko-Pinchuk oligarchy) that are opposed to it, it is also Washington.
After all, the latter spent billions of dollars and decades of effort tearing down the Budapest Memo, and they weren't going to easily return to that status quo.
This is also blindingly obvious in the fact that the Overton window here in USA ranges from "no fly zone! WW3! Hoo-rah!" to "we will merely arm the Ukrainian civilians with Javelins" -- surrender and life-saving compromise isn't even on the table. What would the Kagans get out of that?!
- hkpack 5y agoThere never was a civil war in Ukraine. In 2014 - that was still Russian forces both in Crimea and in eastern part of Ukraine. Russia got sanctioned since 2014 exactly for that.
- pphysch 5y agoWow. 14,000 Ukrainians have been killed by Ukrainians since 2014 in the Donbass region. Heavy weaponry involved. If that is not a civil war, what is it?
- mopsi 5y ago> If that is not a civil war, what is it? Russian invasion of Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine. Ironically, since most people living there are Russians, it's Russians killing Russians in Ukraine in the name of Putin's delusions.
- pphysch 5y agoSo the current war started in 2014, not 2022?
- mopsi 5y agoCareful now, you might not get paid if you use the w-word.
- hkpack 5y agothat is correct, the war started in 2014 by occupation of Crimea and eastern parts of Ukraine. By Putin’s own words, he considered Minsk agreement as a capitulation for Ukraine. But Ukraine did’t want to capitulate, and instead took the time to rebuilt its army. For any Ukrainian it was obvious that Russia will invade soon to try to finish what it started.
- phtrivier 5y ago"surrendering" is really not aanywhere in the spectrum in USA, historically. And, even though the "splitting and surviving" compromise seems almost inevitable to me, I have no idea how long it will take. And I can't blame all parties (Russia / Ukraine / EU / NATO) for trying to "buy time" and reach the négociation table in the best possible situation. I can imagine Putin would have preferred rolling over Kyiv, then negociate. But now all he has to do is bomb, turn kyev into "Alep on Dniepr", and wait it out. Europe has six months of warmer weather to wait it out, before gas reserves become a problem again. I don't if Biden will prefer entering midterms with or without a war abroad ? Can't say it will really bother him more than whatever domestic "October suprise" comes up. Again, i don't know. But I would not book an Airbnb for a barbecue in eastern Europe this summer, If I were you. (On the other hand, if you're into Nordics or Baltics, visit finland and Estonia NOW, they're next in line.)
- pphysch 5y agoTotal nonsense. Putin is not going to bomb Lviv, much less Estonia or Finland.
- ogogmad 5y agoCan you read the man's mind? Because the rest of us are struggling to, and are preparing for the worst.
- pphysch 5y agoNo, I just hear to what Moscow has been saying for the last 15yrs and relate it to facts on the ground. No need for armchair psychology.
- mopsi 5y agoWhy 15 years? You don't need to go futher back than to mid-February and see what they said about the invasion of Ukraine. Or even better, just a few days ago Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov said that there's no war in Ukraine. Trustworthy chap, no doubt.