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The title is deceptive- Fukuyama, writing from Northern Macedonia, has an extremely optimistic view that Russia will be "defeated" and Putin will fall- notwiths
by jonahbenton 5y ago
The title is deceptive- Fukuyama, writing from Northern Macedonia, has an extremely optimistic view that Russia will be "defeated" and Putin will fall- notwithstanding enormous, catastrophic losses for Ukraine- with significant downstream implications.
The two subpoints with which I agree are that the NATO decision on the MiGs was wise, and that neither Russia nor Ukraine can climb down from their positions.
My expectation is that of a long hot/cold standoff, eventual splitting of Ukraine, and gradual North Koreanification of Russia with Putin at the helm.
- zozbot234 5y ago> gradual North Koreanification of Russia with Putin at the helm Which would still be pretty effective in preserving the current international order. If it becomes exceedingly clear that threatening your neighbors militarily means turning your country into a new North Korea at best even if you have nukes, that will deter future leaders from trying the same. (The nukes part is very important because the only thing keeping the current non-proliferation equilibrium in place, at least among developed countries, is an understanding that nukes are only useful to defend against other nukes. Russia's overt threats in the context of this "operation" would otherwise put that equilibrium at serious risk.)
- flycaliguy 5y agoA recent fear of mine has been a false-flag chemical attack followed up by a “justified” nuke to evaporate the evidence.
- BlueTemplar 5y agoPutin is now screwed regardless. His own public opinion is not going to forgive him what he did to their friends and family members in Ukraine. The only question is how long that is going to take, and how bloody it will get.