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I agree with every point he makes. Fantastic summary. I think the Russian collapse will be like what scientists call a phase transition: a semblance of stabili
by credit_guy 5y ago
I agree with every point he makes. Fantastic summary.
I think the Russian collapse will be like what scientists call a phase transition: a semblance of stability one day, a complete breakdown one (literal) day later. Ukraine will end up holding more than 100k POWs. The only negotiations will Russia will be about reparations. I hope they don’t settle for anything less than one trillion.
- BurningFrog 5y agoThe "Single Point of Failure" is Putin. If he's deposed or killed, we probably have a very different Russia the next day.
- credit_guy 5y agoPutin is obviously a point of failure. But so are the hungry and scared soldiers in the field. Putin is not able to supply almost 200k soldiers, most of whom are already tens of kilometers away from the border. There will be some supply trucks coming, but if it's only 80% of what's needed rather than 100% (or better yet 120%), then soon, very soon, people on the front line will start running out of stuff that keeps them in fighting condition. And here you have so many points of failure: water, food, munitions, fuel come to mind. You run out of one of these, you stop fighting, simple as that.
- jnsaff2 5y agoOne can dream but I highly doubt, Russian history is littered with autocrats and tyrants. Brief periods of even nominal democracy have also been highly unstable. The deep rooted ‘russian greatness’ is a very fertile ground for populists.
- BurningFrog 5y agoI wouldn't expect a Jeffersonian democracy from a coup. But a new regime that makes peace and stays within Russian borders would be likely.
- thriftwy 5y agoOr he gets superceded by the Dimon "shoot the survivors" Medvedev.
- hackerfromthefu 5y agoIf it gets to that stage, the repatriations should be centered on Russian nuclear disarmament.