God, what a simplistic model he's got. Putin is probably on his way to defeat, but it's a long way and IMO we might get a few nuked out cities before that happe

God, what a simplistic model he's got. Putin is probably on his way to defeat, but it's a long way and IMO we might get a few nuked out cities before that happens. If Europe chickens out then he could be the winner, holding everyone hostage with his finger on the red button in a "Pax Russianus". > 7. Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power? The way I see it, he's a mafia boss with everyone under him (the military, the police) under his control. It feels like everyone under him is dedicated to the "Make Russia Great Again" cause. If someone takes him out, the new guy will still be a strongman with a big army and nukes, so what's the point? If someone takes him out and offers peace, US/EU/NATO will want a huge armistice (a bit like Germany after WW2) before they'd restore the economic relationship, and if the new guy accepts that sort of conquering, there'll be plenty of people from the "Long Live Russia" side ready to take him out. A better analysis: https://www.ft.com/content/503fb110-f91e-4bed-b6dc-0d09582dd007 https://www.ft.com/content/503fb110-f91e-4bed-b6dc-0d09582dd...