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The question I don’t have an answer for here is how does Russia control Ukraine if they do win militarily? It seems incredibly unlikely that they have enough tr
by klelatti 5y ago
The question I don’t have an answer for here is how does Russia control Ukraine if they do win militarily? It seems incredibly unlikely that they have enough troops and doesn’t seem remotely sustainable.
- varjag 5y agoThrough a campaign of mass terror and genocide.
- BurningFrog 5y agoThe motivation for the war is that Ukrainians are really Russians who happened to be trapped in a separate country under a Nazi government. Killing all the people you came to liberate is a tough PR sell.
- bambax 5y agoYou're right, but so far it's unclear if Putin is at all concerned with PR.
- srvmshr 5y agoThey can't. An unbiasedly simple answer. Strategically this war is a lost cause for Russia, even if they win militarily in the short term. Capture is one thing. Holding on is another. According to latest estimates, RU has already invested the lion share of its military assets (not army men) in the Ukraine invasion. And they're doing badly. There will be attrition & guerrila warfare if boots stay on Ukrainian soil. They dont have an economy like US/UK to back this up well. They're bleeding under sanctions. Economy is falling as fast as when USSR collapsed. No major foreign trade possible (except the Southern hemisphere countries, China & India) & companies are pulling out. Mass unemployment & currency devaluation will likely follow. The world opinion is not sympathetic to Russia. It is a lose-lose. As of now the Russians are fighting for the sake of one man's inflated ego of building the 'Historic Russia'. The Ukrainians may or may not win this offensive, but they have showed remarkable heroism & solidarity to keep the country fighting.
- klelatti 5y agoIndeed and this all seems to support the hypothesis that Putin expected a quick capitulation and to install a compliant regime.
- MrRiddle 5y agoActually it’s fairly easy, they can conduct Balkanization[0] They will find appropriate politicians or in some cases warlords for each region, in most cases they will fight among each other to gain power. This is not WW2 where you need a soldier to stand around every other corner, we’re much more sophisticated now. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balkanization https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balkanization
- burntoutfire 5y agoBalkanization worked because former Jugoslavia actually consisted of multiple very different ethnic and religious groups.
- jdrc 5y agothis was already happening in ukraine however , cant push it any further
- forinti 5y agoI can't imagine that Russia has planned to take over such a large country. It only makes sense if they only planned to bomb Ukraine into handing over Donetsk, Lukhansk, recognising the loss of Crimea, and agreeing not to join NATO. From this perspective, it's hard for Russia to loose. A destroyed Ukraine won't fight for their lost territories and won't be accepted into the EU or NATO.
- klelatti 5y agoDon’t believe that for a moment. Crimea and parts of Donetsk etc already under their control and a limited incursion could have gained more territory at low risk. Instead Russia faces huge economic penalties and stronger Ukraine-EU links are much more likely even if full membership doesn’t happen.
- jansen555 5y ago[dead]
- jdrc 5y agoit seems that pootin doesnt want to keep it, hence why the slow approach to kiev etc, he wants to press hard on final negotiations. But OTOH , that is a bluff that the west can call. If he really stays in kiev, with zelenski exiled in poland and active resistance in ukraine, and sanctions having now become permanent, that's a slow disaster for him. Russians were not asked for this invasion nor are they prepared for global isolation, despite their nationalist exuberance