I agree completely, except for the part where you are 100% sure they don't have any (working) nukes. I think it's possible, even likely that their nuclear arse

I agree completely, except for the part where you are 100% sure they don't have any (working) nukes. I think it's possible, even likely that their nuclear arsenal is in shambles and much is non-functional. A cash-strapped regime like Russia has surely made the same observation as you and realized that they can reap all of the deterrence benefits without actually spending any money to maintain nuclear readiness. Unlike you, I do think it's likely that at least some of their arsenal is functional. Perhaps it's not the full "turn the US into a parking lot" array they'd like others to think they have, but I find it hard to believe they have none.