4 ms·

Looks like he is preparing to shed some blame, or eliminate some people who advised compromise?

belter 5y ago
"Third Russian general killed as Ukrainian resistance frustrates Putin’s forces, say Western officials" https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/russian-general-killed-ukraine-resistance-vladimir-putin-b987577.html https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/russian-general-kil...
- aurizon 5y ago
  Now Russia is a little wary of the NATO buildup on the western borders - it might make him want to ramp down, with all the other problems, he may be looking for scapegoats, as Stalin used to do.
  - netsharc 5y ago
    Well, here I am on the Internet playing geo-politics expert, but... I don't see what Putin's exit strategy is, and if he can't exit looking like a winner, we're in for a shit show, because he has nukes. The way I see it, at the moment, if he can't turn Ukraine to Belarus, he can only retreat looking like a winner if Ukraine gives him Donbass and Crimea. If he retreats without even gaining anything, then 1) the informed Russians will know their leader lost a war, 2) NATO, etc. also knows what it takes to defeat him; and 3) he'll be paranoid as hell that NATO knows his army is beatable and that they'll invade Russia. Regardless, with a Ukraine occupation or a retreat, the economic sanctions won't be lifted, because he can't just say "Oops, I messed up, can we get back together?". Even if the European governments want to do that, their voters would topple them at the next elections (this might be a too simplistic model, some of the EU dictatorships might be able to do what they want and stay in power, but e.g. Polish voters will probably never accept normalizing relationships). IMO, lifting of sanctions is only palatable to US/EU-voters if there's a humiliating armistice (like Germany after WW2), but in Putin's eyes that would be equal to a defacto occupation of Russia anyway, and he'd probably launch nukes before accepting such a thing. Regime change would be an answer, but it seems like the entire Russian state is a Mafia organization, and the next guy, who'd be from this Mafia, would also need to be a strongman to keep it under control, and that would still mean an anti-West stance. It'd be amazing to see someone like Navalny be elected to replace him, but in my view (and remember, I don't know what I'm talking about) the Mafia is too strong for that to ever happen. Unless of course there are foreign "peace keeping" forces, which again, IMO, will only happen after nukes.
    - kreeben 5y ago
      >> EU dictatorships Hmm, I can't think of any. Help me out.
      - jiggawatts 5y ago
        Hungary is effectively a dictatorship now.
      - netsharc 5y ago
        Orban in Hungary. Poland is also now pretty shit: https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/aug/17/poland-democracy-andrzej-duda-politics-populism https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/aug/17/... The people who don't like liberal democracies might even say Macron, and some other leaders, are also dictators, but I meant Hungary and Poland.
    - belter 5y ago
      Navalny is a pretty nasty character too. You don't want him anywhere near a position of power: "Amnesty strips Alexei Navalny of 'prisoner of conscience' status" https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56181084 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56181084 Nobody of the inside team, turned on Hitler until the last days, only some peripheral teams of his military. Stalin killed millions and no insider ever tried to take him out so Putin is not under threat from his "team".
      - aurizon 5y ago
        Stalin did have many nascent rebellions, but I think a sadist called Beria had a network of 'ears' looking for any suspicious types - some say he over suspected = many were killed who were innocent - the overkill justified as extra cautionary. You can be sure Putin read his play book and is well guarded. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavrentiy_Beria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavrentiy_Beria
        belter 5y ago
        Beria makes Stalin look like a choir boy...If there is a lesson, is that these dictators are normally surrounded by people even worst.

"Third Russian general killed as Ukrainian resistance frustrates Putin’s forces, say Western officials" https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/russian-general-killed-ukraine-resistance-vladimir-putin-b987577.html https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/russian-general-kil...

aurizon 5y ago
Now Russia is a little wary of the NATO buildup on the western borders - it might make him want to ramp down, with all the other problems, he may be looking for scapegoats, as Stalin used to do.
- netsharc 5y ago
  Well, here I am on the Internet playing geo-politics expert, but... I don't see what Putin's exit strategy is, and if he can't exit looking like a winner, we're in for a shit show, because he has nukes. The way I see it, at the moment, if he can't turn Ukraine to Belarus, he can only retreat looking like a winner if Ukraine gives him Donbass and Crimea. If he retreats without even gaining anything, then 1) the informed Russians will know their leader lost a war, 2) NATO, etc. also knows what it takes to defeat him; and 3) he'll be paranoid as hell that NATO knows his army is beatable and that they'll invade Russia. Regardless, with a Ukraine occupation or a retreat, the economic sanctions won't be lifted, because he can't just say "Oops, I messed up, can we get back together?". Even if the European governments want to do that, their voters would topple them at the next elections (this might be a too simplistic model, some of the EU dictatorships might be able to do what they want and stay in power, but e.g. Polish voters will probably never accept normalizing relationships). IMO, lifting of sanctions is only palatable to US/EU-voters if there's a humiliating armistice (like Germany after WW2), but in Putin's eyes that would be equal to a defacto occupation of Russia anyway, and he'd probably launch nukes before accepting such a thing. Regime change would be an answer, but it seems like the entire Russian state is a Mafia organization, and the next guy, who'd be from this Mafia, would also need to be a strongman to keep it under control, and that would still mean an anti-West stance. It'd be amazing to see someone like Navalny be elected to replace him, but in my view (and remember, I don't know what I'm talking about) the Mafia is too strong for that to ever happen. Unless of course there are foreign "peace keeping" forces, which again, IMO, will only happen after nukes.
  - kreeben 5y ago
    >> EU dictatorships Hmm, I can't think of any. Help me out.
    - jiggawatts 5y ago
      Hungary is effectively a dictatorship now.
    - netsharc 5y ago
      Orban in Hungary. Poland is also now pretty shit: https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/aug/17/poland-democracy-andrzej-duda-politics-populism https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/aug/17/... The people who don't like liberal democracies might even say Macron, and some other leaders, are also dictators, but I meant Hungary and Poland.
  - belter 5y ago
    Navalny is a pretty nasty character too. You don't want him anywhere near a position of power: "Amnesty strips Alexei Navalny of 'prisoner of conscience' status" https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56181084 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56181084 Nobody of the inside team, turned on Hitler until the last days, only some peripheral teams of his military. Stalin killed millions and no insider ever tried to take him out so Putin is not under threat from his "team".
    - aurizon 5y ago
      Stalin did have many nascent rebellions, but I think a sadist called Beria had a network of 'ears' looking for any suspicious types - some say he over suspected = many were killed who were innocent - the overkill justified as extra cautionary. You can be sure Putin read his play book and is well guarded. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavrentiy_Beria https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavrentiy_Beria
      - belter 5y ago
        Beria makes Stalin look like a choir boy...If there is a lesson, is that these dictators are normally surrounded by people even worst.