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> self-driving vehicles will allow people to commute while asleep or doing their hobbies This doesn't eliminate the traffic issues and energy consumption assoc

by shkkmo 5y ago

> self-driving vehicles will allow people to commute while asleep or doing their hobbies This doesn't eliminate the traffic issues and energy consumption associated with long commutes. Self-driving cars are a substitute for the efficiency benefits of density. If anything, the expansion of remote work has just pushed the housing crisis into more housing markets.

yazaddaruvala 5y ago
> pushed the housing crisis into more housing markets. FWIW I prefer density but isn’t this good? The reality of yesterday was too few zip codes with too much demand and not enough good will to increase supply. Instead we now have a lot more zip codes that can make decentralized decisions about building more housing. Hopefully they vote for more development and use it as a way to stimulate jobs in their local construction industry. How can this be a bad thing?
- shkkmo 5y ago
  The new zipcodes face the same economic incentives to restrict supply. Property owners want to see their holdings increase in value and generally have more political power. I don't see any reason why the new hot markets are going to do anything different from the old hot markets. Perhaps some will, but renters and potential homeowners will get priced out of more markets
  - yazaddaruvala 5y ago
    Because the long term benefit of density ends up lifting the local economy a lot more than the property prices go down in the short term. Especially with remote work, the extra income brought in adds to the local coffee, haircut and food scene, and increased overall property taxes on the same land make the city money. People just don't think in that long a timeframe but there are localities which do and hopefully it works for them and we all get to learn the timeframe for benefits (or the lack of benefits) from such a change. https://www.theurbanist.org/2020/08/12/portland-passes-sweeping-zoning-reform/ https://www.theurbanist.org/2020/08/12/portland-passes-sweep...
    - shkkmo 5y ago
      My point is that communities that cam think long term seem rare based on the available evidence. Thus most of the communities where the housing crises is being exported will just face the same problem. This why why I am making the point that we shouldn't rely on remote work (of self driving cars) to solve our housing crises. The only good solution is increasing density, (and I suspect we agree on that.) It's great if people want to take advantage of remote work to live I'm new housing markets, but they should realize the consequences of those choices and work to mitigate them.
ben_w 5y ago
> This doesn't eliminate the traffic issues and energy consumption associated with long commutes. How are traffic issues relevant to housing costs when no person is wasting time in the driver seat?
- shkkmo 5y ago
  There is a limit to how long a commute can grow before it becomes untenable a part of a daily routine. Being able to do other things while commuting increases acceptable commute time, but does not elimant this limit. Traffic can greatly extend commuting times and thus is directly relevant.
  - ben_w 5y ago
    If you can sleep in the car while it’s moving, it’s potentially adding up to 8 hours per day to your acceptable commute duration. (And that’s separate to having a self driving RV, which also radically changes the home marketplace)
    - shkkmo 5y ago
      That just extends the limit, the limit still exists. Because of that limit, traffic reduces the range you can commute within that limit. I don't think "self-driving" rv's do anything to revolutionize the housing market. What they do is revolutionize travel (it's like having a private luxery train car that can go almost anywhere.) Parking an RV can be an expensive and competive in and around urban areas (speaking from vanlife experience.) Having a self-driving RV driving around all night while you sleep also isn't cost effective and won't scale. What I see as a revolution in the rv/housing market would be affordable, all eletric RVs with sufficient solar capacity to recharge their range over the course days. Combine this with starlink and/or 5g and you create cheaply location flexible housing.
      - ben_w 5y ago
        > That just extends the limit, the limit still exists. Because of that limit, traffic reduces the range you can commute within that limit. Yeah and? The limit is in the order of 250 miles. Have you seen how cheap houses get 250 miles away from cities? London to Bradford is about that distance, and the average property prices in those two are £629,400 [0] and £58,673 [1] respectively, nearly a factor of 11. Or, if you prefer American reference points, SanFran to the edge of Nevada; or the White House to anywhere in Delaware and Maryland, most of Virginia and New Jersey, and half of each of Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia; or Boston to the Canadian border; or LA to Ensenada, Mexico. Don’t tell me there’s nowhere affordable in all that. Especially not in the large number of tiny places that aren’t important enough to be labelled on the map when it’s zoomed out to 250 miles. House costs are mostly the land cost. More range = more land = more supply => cheaper houses. [0] https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/property-news/london-house-prices-growth-outpaced-uk-average-b976837.html https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/property-news/lo... [1] https://www.moveiq.co.uk/blog/buying/10-cheapest-places-buy-house-uk/ https://www.moveiq.co.uk/blog/buying/10-cheapest-places-buy-...

by shkkmo 5y ago

yazaddaruvala 5y ago

> pushed the housing crisis into more housing markets. FWIW I prefer density but isn’t this good? The reality of yesterday was too few zip codes with too much demand and not enough good will to increase supply. Instead we now have a lot more zip codes that can make decentralized decisions about building more housing. Hopefully they vote for more development and use it as a way to stimulate jobs in their local construction industry. How can this be a bad thing?

shkkmo 5y ago
The new zipcodes face the same economic incentives to restrict supply. Property owners want to see their holdings increase in value and generally have more political power. I don't see any reason why the new hot markets are going to do anything different from the old hot markets. Perhaps some will, but renters and potential homeowners will get priced out of more markets
- yazaddaruvala 5y ago
  Because the long term benefit of density ends up lifting the local economy a lot more than the property prices go down in the short term. Especially with remote work, the extra income brought in adds to the local coffee, haircut and food scene, and increased overall property taxes on the same land make the city money. People just don't think in that long a timeframe but there are localities which do and hopefully it works for them and we all get to learn the timeframe for benefits (or the lack of benefits) from such a change. https://www.theurbanist.org/2020/08/12/portland-passes-sweeping-zoning-reform/ https://www.theurbanist.org/2020/08/12/portland-passes-sweep...
  - shkkmo 5y ago
    My point is that communities that cam think long term seem rare based on the available evidence. Thus most of the communities where the housing crises is being exported will just face the same problem. This why why I am making the point that we shouldn't rely on remote work (of self driving cars) to solve our housing crises. The only good solution is increasing density, (and I suspect we agree on that.) It's great if people want to take advantage of remote work to live I'm new housing markets, but they should realize the consequences of those choices and work to mitigate them.

ben_w 5y ago

> This doesn't eliminate the traffic issues and energy consumption associated with long commutes. How are traffic issues relevant to housing costs when no person is wasting time in the driver seat?

shkkmo 5y ago
There is a limit to how long a commute can grow before it becomes untenable a part of a daily routine. Being able to do other things while commuting increases acceptable commute time, but does not elimant this limit. Traffic can greatly extend commuting times and thus is directly relevant.
- ben_w 5y ago
  If you can sleep in the car while it’s moving, it’s potentially adding up to 8 hours per day to your acceptable commute duration. (And that’s separate to having a self driving RV, which also radically changes the home marketplace)
  - shkkmo 5y ago
    That just extends the limit, the limit still exists. Because of that limit, traffic reduces the range you can commute within that limit. I don't think "self-driving" rv's do anything to revolutionize the housing market. What they do is revolutionize travel (it's like having a private luxery train car that can go almost anywhere.) Parking an RV can be an expensive and competive in and around urban areas (speaking from vanlife experience.) Having a self-driving RV driving around all night while you sleep also isn't cost effective and won't scale. What I see as a revolution in the rv/housing market would be affordable, all eletric RVs with sufficient solar capacity to recharge their range over the course days. Combine this with starlink and/or 5g and you create cheaply location flexible housing.
    - ben_w 5y ago
      > That just extends the limit, the limit still exists. Because of that limit, traffic reduces the range you can commute within that limit. Yeah and? The limit is in the order of 250 miles. Have you seen how cheap houses get 250 miles away from cities? London to Bradford is about that distance, and the average property prices in those two are £629,400 [0] and £58,673 [1] respectively, nearly a factor of 11. Or, if you prefer American reference points, SanFran to the edge of Nevada; or the White House to anywhere in Delaware and Maryland, most of Virginia and New Jersey, and half of each of Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia; or Boston to the Canadian border; or LA to Ensenada, Mexico. Don’t tell me there’s nowhere affordable in all that. Especially not in the large number of tiny places that aren’t important enough to be labelled on the map when it’s zoomed out to 250 miles. House costs are mostly the land cost. More range = more land = more supply => cheaper houses. [0] https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/property-news/london-house-prices-growth-outpaced-uk-average-b976837.html https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/property-news/lo... [1] https://www.moveiq.co.uk/blog/buying/10-cheapest-places-buy-house-uk/ https://www.moveiq.co.uk/blog/buying/10-cheapest-places-buy-...