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Photographic reports claim its a Brahmos based on the rocket motor's honeycomb inlet. How viable is that this happened by accident? (Disclaimer: I am an unbias

Photographic reports claim its a Brahmos based on the rocket motor's honeycomb inlet. How viable is that this happened by accident? (Disclaimer: I am an unbiased Indian expat) People who follow strategic news, as a side interest (inclusive yours truly), are dumbfounded. There has to be some ridiculous reason this happened. Missile systems have a lot of safeguards which need to be interlocked to fire a weapon. If the weapon is advanced as it is claimed (and not just a rebranded dumb P700 Granit) it needs to have a target coordinate, a flight path, charged launching fuse/initiator, and the TEL upright or fully extended as the configuration permits (Indian Su 30s can launch Brahmos too but none of the news report mention it was air launched. The reports indicate flight originated at Sirsa, a garrison town ~150km from border). Except for the launch programming, every launch sequence involves several mechanical steps. Striking out possible mischief makers, this was (1) a drill that went terribly wrong, and weapons were 'hot' without a target coordinate (2) flight computer had a malfunction in middle of a routine test (This is however less likely because no NOTAMs were issued in India, and the path could be over populated areas. Also any test would be done on the Pokhran weapons test range or Wheeler Island in Bay of Bengal) The flight speed & path are pretty consistent with how a BrahMos could operate. The initial estimate of 3 minutes & 130 km puts it in the ~2.5 Mach operating bracket. The incident was handled with grace and restraint by Pakistan. I give them credit for not escalating militarily. As a side note, Indian defense suffers from several problems that Russia faces, albeit at a smaller scale. The corruption is prevalent not throughout the chain - but near the top. Those interested could look up Bofors Howitzer guns kickback scandal, or more recently the corruption charges in AugustaWestland chopper procurement. Although I have a deeper understanding of IAF (which is riddled with management problems), if the situation is similar with Army - they may not be really prepared for modern warfares with need for training & upgrades.

throwaway0a5e 5y ago
Military systems tend to have a lot of manual overrides because you don't want your nukes to not be able to fire because the internet is down. In some cases these overrides are what you use to test the equipment. The military in general tends toward manpower and process where the civilian world tends toward automation and stupid-proofing. Militaries invest a ton in manpower and process so often times it makes sense to leverage that rather than adding tech. I am not familiar with the specific missile in question.
- srvmshr 5y ago
  That is what I angled at in original comment as well. > Except for the launch programming, every launch sequence involves several mechanical steps. There are failsafes of course, but strategic assets typically contain safeguards so that your average Joe won't light up the fireworks. That makes it less likely an accidental launch. In modern militaries, the overrides are (most often) distributed across several different people so that one person doesn't have the full capacity to start a war. Re-arming by overrides lies within a chain of command, each doing a single vital link with full agreement of the process (Steps are usually checked & announced TBS). If we go by the version of events from Indian government, that 'misfire' likely never happened. The chances being low i.e a whole team of people collectively made a horrible launch from a weapon geared up to ready-to-fire condition. Unless they were absolutely clueless about their own job. If the tech is that dumb in the unlikely event, this is extremely unfortunate for Indian defense. It is a risk that needs addressing It is more plausible that scenario 2 happened : the telemetry & control garbled and the missile moved off course. According to Pak. government briefing, missile took a hard turn in its flight before entering their airspace. Being touted as India's top of line weapons platform, admitting this screw-up might have been embarrassing. Then again, we may never know unless someone speaks up in the back-channels

throwaway0a5e 5y ago

Military systems tend to have a lot of manual overrides because you don't want your nukes to not be able to fire because the internet is down. In some cases these overrides are what you use to test the equipment. The military in general tends toward manpower and process where the civilian world tends toward automation and stupid-proofing. Militaries invest a ton in manpower and process so often times it makes sense to leverage that rather than adding tech. I am not familiar with the specific missile in question.

srvmshr 5y ago
That is what I angled at in original comment as well. > Except for the launch programming, every launch sequence involves several mechanical steps. There are failsafes of course, but strategic assets typically contain safeguards so that your average Joe won't light up the fireworks. That makes it less likely an accidental launch. In modern militaries, the overrides are (most often) distributed across several different people so that one person doesn't have the full capacity to start a war. Re-arming by overrides lies within a chain of command, each doing a single vital link with full agreement of the process (Steps are usually checked & announced TBS). If we go by the version of events from Indian government, that 'misfire' likely never happened. The chances being low i.e a whole team of people collectively made a horrible launch from a weapon geared up to ready-to-fire condition. Unless they were absolutely clueless about their own job. If the tech is that dumb in the unlikely event, this is extremely unfortunate for Indian defense. It is a risk that needs addressing It is more plausible that scenario 2 happened : the telemetry & control garbled and the missile moved off course. According to Pak. government briefing, missile took a hard turn in its flight before entering their airspace. Being touted as India's top of line weapons platform, admitting this screw-up might have been embarrassing. Then again, we may never know unless someone speaks up in the back-channels