5 ms·

That’s part of the point: Whether or not they are eventually possible is an open question. The standard argument for agnosticism as to the possibility is “The p

by gkop 5y ago

That’s part of the point: Whether or not they are eventually possible is an open question. The standard argument for agnosticism as to the possibility is “The problem reduces to artificial general intelligence, the possibility of which is an open question.”

walkhour 5y ago
Is whether unicorns are possible an open question? Even if it is, does anyone care about it? Are any companies actively trying to create unicorns?
- mysterydip 5y ago
  They would certainly have a market for my 6yo daughter's demographic.
dmm 5y ago
> Whether or not they are eventually possible is an open question. They're probably not possible with the road system we have but we redesigned our road system to accommodate cars(arguably with terrible results for non-cars) and we could probably redesign it again for autonomous cars. For example by requiring pedestrians and cyclists to wear radio transponders.
rmbyrro 5y ago
I never thought driving a vehicle is that general of an activity to require AGI. Which parts of driving would require AGI?
- MontyCarloHall 5y ago
  > Which parts of driving would require AGI? Being able to read the intent of other cars and preemptively act if necessary. For instance, being able to predict that the harried mom on her phone toting 3 screaming kids in her beat up minivan is likely to change lanes without looking (I passed her preemptively), or that the car with out-of-state plates is likely to miss a confusingly signed exit and try and cut over at the last minute without looking (I slowed down preemptively, to let the car abruptly veer across three lanes of traffic ahead of me). Both of these examples require an understanding of the world that goes far beyond mere driving skills.
  - yazaddaruvala 5y ago
    Or, the AV can calculate the worst from every car and go a little slower i.e. safer. Leave more room between the car in front and move out of the way for cars too close behind. An average 20 min ride increased by 10% would be 22 mins. I’d gladly trade an extra few mins in the car to 1. Be safer. 2. Get back 20 mins to check the news or play chess or worst case work. Self driving cars aren’t just going to be a reality, in PHX they kinda are a reality. It doesn’t seem far fetched to think 5 years (high estimate - 10 years) from now Waymo will be scaled to the top 25 cities in the US.
  - rmbyrro 5y ago
    These are indeed examples that are far ahead of the tech we have today, but I'd bet a single-digit percentage of drivers actually perform these tasks, and most do it only occasionally. There are areas where AI drivers win over human drivers. Maybe it's already net positive? I have the opinion we don't need AI to be perfect, just on par or better than humans from an aggregate perspective.

by gkop 5y ago

walkhour 5y ago

Is whether unicorns are possible an open question? Even if it is, does anyone care about it? Are any companies actively trying to create unicorns?

mysterydip 5y ago
They would certainly have a market for my 6yo daughter's demographic.

dmm 5y ago

> Whether or not they are eventually possible is an open question. They're probably not possible with the road system we have but we redesigned our road system to accommodate cars(arguably with terrible results for non-cars) and we could probably redesign it again for autonomous cars. For example by requiring pedestrians and cyclists to wear radio transponders.

rmbyrro 5y ago

I never thought driving a vehicle is that general of an activity to require AGI. Which parts of driving would require AGI?

MontyCarloHall 5y ago
> Which parts of driving would require AGI? Being able to read the intent of other cars and preemptively act if necessary. For instance, being able to predict that the harried mom on her phone toting 3 screaming kids in her beat up minivan is likely to change lanes without looking (I passed her preemptively), or that the car with out-of-state plates is likely to miss a confusingly signed exit and try and cut over at the last minute without looking (I slowed down preemptively, to let the car abruptly veer across three lanes of traffic ahead of me). Both of these examples require an understanding of the world that goes far beyond mere driving skills.
- yazaddaruvala 5y ago
  Or, the AV can calculate the worst from every car and go a little slower i.e. safer. Leave more room between the car in front and move out of the way for cars too close behind. An average 20 min ride increased by 10% would be 22 mins. I’d gladly trade an extra few mins in the car to 1. Be safer. 2. Get back 20 mins to check the news or play chess or worst case work. Self driving cars aren’t just going to be a reality, in PHX they kinda are a reality. It doesn’t seem far fetched to think 5 years (high estimate - 10 years) from now Waymo will be scaled to the top 25 cities in the US.
- rmbyrro 5y ago
  These are indeed examples that are far ahead of the tech we have today, but I'd bet a single-digit percentage of drivers actually perform these tasks, and most do it only occasionally. There are areas where AI drivers win over human drivers. Maybe it's already net positive? I have the opinion we don't need AI to be perfect, just on par or better than humans from an aggregate perspective.