5 ms·

As far as I understand it, it not a binary "we are fucked" / "we are unfucked" if you are talking globally, or even large nations like the US, EU, Russia, China

As far as I understand it, it not a binary "we are fucked" / "we are unfucked" if you are talking globally, or even large nations like the US, EU, Russia, China, etc. It's a gradient. The more CO2, the warmer earth gets.

lopis 5y ago
It's not just that. There are critical mass effects where, after a certain level, positive feedback loops will cascade to all systems. There's definitely a point where we're fucked and won't be able to unfuck ourselves.
- rhino369 5y ago
  I'm far from an expert on climate. But my understanding when I looked into these issues ~8 years ago for a class, was that massive positive feedback loop stuff was not really accepted by the mainstream of scientists. Of course there are positive feedback components, but there are negative ones too. And stuff like clathrate gun, etc., can't be found in the IPCC reports. The 2 degree goal is more or less arbitrary. edit: by that I mean 1.9 isn't much better than 2.1--not that 2.1 is no big deal
  - eldaisfish 5y ago
    the point is that these effects are difficult to predict. The challenge is that a changing climate may upset ecological balances in ways that are difficult to predict and difficult to counter. Take the indian subcontinent as a great example. That is a region of a billion people dependent entirely on the monsoon for water. The region is surrounded by deserts to the west and north. If the monsoon is disrupted due to climate change, what will happen to those billion people? It's worse still if you consider that glacial meltwater from the himalayas also feeds China's largest rivers. On the flip side, too much rain and there is also a disaster. This is the point - we don't know what will happen but can be certain it will be bad.
ehnto 5y ago
Yes and no, it's not a linear gradient, there are points on the gradient where things get exponentially worse, and everything rapidly accelerates, like a runaway diesel engine. We can go from "Livable with adaptation" to "millions displaced from unlivable catastrophes and conditions" by hitting some of those milestones.
- starkd 5y ago
  Perhaps that's true. But the ability to know where those points are with any degree of certainty, we are utterly in the dark about.
  - hobs 5y ago
    You're driving a car at night with no headlights, but since there's no way to be certain about what's ahead, should you: pump the gas or pump the brakes?

lopis 5y ago

It's not just that. There are critical mass effects where, after a certain level, positive feedback loops will cascade to all systems. There's definitely a point where we're fucked and won't be able to unfuck ourselves.

rhino369 5y ago
I'm far from an expert on climate. But my understanding when I looked into these issues ~8 years ago for a class, was that massive positive feedback loop stuff was not really accepted by the mainstream of scientists. Of course there are positive feedback components, but there are negative ones too. And stuff like clathrate gun, etc., can't be found in the IPCC reports. The 2 degree goal is more or less arbitrary. edit: by that I mean 1.9 isn't much better than 2.1--not that 2.1 is no big deal
- eldaisfish 5y ago
  the point is that these effects are difficult to predict. The challenge is that a changing climate may upset ecological balances in ways that are difficult to predict and difficult to counter. Take the indian subcontinent as a great example. That is a region of a billion people dependent entirely on the monsoon for water. The region is surrounded by deserts to the west and north. If the monsoon is disrupted due to climate change, what will happen to those billion people? It's worse still if you consider that glacial meltwater from the himalayas also feeds China's largest rivers. On the flip side, too much rain and there is also a disaster. This is the point - we don't know what will happen but can be certain it will be bad.

ehnto 5y ago

Yes and no, it's not a linear gradient, there are points on the gradient where things get exponentially worse, and everything rapidly accelerates, like a runaway diesel engine. We can go from "Livable with adaptation" to "millions displaced from unlivable catastrophes and conditions" by hitting some of those milestones.

starkd 5y ago
Perhaps that's true. But the ability to know where those points are with any degree of certainty, we are utterly in the dark about.
- hobs 5y ago
  You're driving a car at night with no headlights, but since there's no way to be certain about what's ahead, should you: pump the gas or pump the brakes?