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Russia is an export economy that finances half it's public spending directly from energy sales. Recently it had a very good trade surplus - each year it netted
by manholio 5y ago
Russia is an export economy that finances half it's public spending directly from energy sales. Recently it had a very good trade surplus - each year it netted tens of billions of dollars more coming into its economy than going out. Most of those exports are still in place and, while some foreign exchange reserves were frozen, Russia still controls hundreds of billions worth, allowing it to support the ruble.
It also very hard to stop this flow of foreign currency: as a permanent member of the UN security council, Russia cannot be subjected to is an embargo, all nations are free to trade with it from the point of international law. So assuming US, EU, Canada, Japan etc. all stop buying Russian oil and start buying from other sources, then that oil will be redistributed onto the the global oil market, maybe a few pennies cheaper, but Russia will still get it's money, now at record high prices.
A thing that could help is stopping the gas purchases, that, due to limited infrastructure cannot be routed to other countries, but will clearly damage european economies. Also, pressure on China, India and other large economies, threats of secondary sanctions, making them chose if they want to trade with the western bloc or Russia, all these could really damage Russia. There were no substantial actions in this regard because it would hurt the west too, China is unlikely to simply roll over.
- NoPie 5y agoThere were news that China refused to sell airplane parts to Russia (https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-says-china-refuses-supply-aircraft-parts-after-sanctions-2022-03-10/ https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-sa...). I am not really sure what happened but I can imagine that the US may demand suppliers not to sell to Russia. Considering that the US/western market is much bigger, the choice will be in favour of the west. As I said, the sanctions can become even stronger with time. Even Chinese and Indian suppliers are not entirely immune to pressure to stop trading with Russia. There will be no bipolar world. Very few countries openly supported Russia in the UN. Those who abstained/kept neutrality want to continue trading but clearly they don't consider Russian invasion into Ukraine acceptable and would have preferred that it never happened.