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> No because those flu viruses were not novel, or as deadly. That information always lags reality. When/if the next deadly flu strain emerges, it will have e

> No because those flu viruses were not novel, or as deadly. That information always lags reality. When/if the next deadly flu strain emerges, it will have emerged before it is discovered to have emerged. If you're not planning for this scenario, are you really planning for the worst case? You could be Patient Zero for Spanish Flu Part Two, with your preemptive masking being the difference between global disaster and nothingburger.

awb 5y ago
> If you're not planning for this scenario, are you really planning for the worst case? No, I was being a little loose with my language there. I didn’t mean the literal worst case of being patient 0. I agree that I don’t plan for that. My personal risk tolerance is higher than that. I meant the more colloquial worst case of hearing about a deadly virus spreading rapidly in the news and then deciding to react with an abundance of caution once it seems probable that my community will be affected. Then I’m fine playing it safe. Just like I would with any other forecasted threat from Mother Nature like a fire, hurricane, blizzard, etc. The more certainty it’s going to affect me + the greater uncertainty of the short & long terms effects = the greater the caution. So in 2020 when I was highly confident COVID would infect my community + there was very little info about how deadly it was = I was overly cautious As more info came out I became less cautious.
JohnTHaller 5y ago
We started masks when it became clear the Covid was far more contagious and deadly than the flu.
- RobertMiller 5y ago
  Not all flus are made equal, and the data about which flus are particularly deadly lags reality. If a flu as deadly as the Spanish Flu emerged again, you would be wise to worry about it. But until then? Until then, I suggest you go about your life. We started wearing masks because covid actually existed, not because we feared that it might one day exist. Fear of hypothetical future covid strains is an example of the later, not the former. I'll consider fearing them once they actually exist, just like those hypothetical future flu strains.

awb 5y ago

> If you're not planning for this scenario, are you really planning for the worst case? No, I was being a little loose with my language there. I didn’t mean the literal worst case of being patient 0. I agree that I don’t plan for that. My personal risk tolerance is higher than that. I meant the more colloquial worst case of hearing about a deadly virus spreading rapidly in the news and then deciding to react with an abundance of caution once it seems probable that my community will be affected. Then I’m fine playing it safe. Just like I would with any other forecasted threat from Mother Nature like a fire, hurricane, blizzard, etc. The more certainty it’s going to affect me + the greater uncertainty of the short & long terms effects = the greater the caution. So in 2020 when I was highly confident COVID would infect my community + there was very little info about how deadly it was = I was overly cautious As more info came out I became less cautious.

JohnTHaller 5y ago

We started masks when it became clear the Covid was far more contagious and deadly than the flu.

RobertMiller 5y ago
Not all flus are made equal, and the data about which flus are particularly deadly lags reality. If a flu as deadly as the Spanish Flu emerged again, you would be wise to worry about it. But until then? Until then, I suggest you go about your life. We started wearing masks because covid actually existed, not because we feared that it might one day exist. Fear of hypothetical future covid strains is an example of the later, not the former. I'll consider fearing them once they actually exist, just like those hypothetical future flu strains.