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> and then a mile or two down the road I pull up right behind the exact same driver at a stoplight or other non-passable thing, and I feel that I've made the ri

> and then a mile or two down the road I pull up right behind the exact same driver at a stoplight or other non-passable thing, and I feel that I've made the right choice. This is what we in the business call confirmation bias. As many times as that's happened - I'm sure there are many times where they also didn't get stuck at the traffic light. Yet - you never saw them. Thus you never thought about. Thus... we call it confirmation bias. Interesting.

skybrian 5y ago
Sure, but the rest of the post describes how they did a proper experiment.
- bradlys 5y ago
  Eh. Idk if I’d call it proper. It’s no different than the “proper” experiments that have a trial of 5 people to test a new drug. Problem is that they only did it for a few days. That’s not enough time for the margin of error to be very good. We all know traffic varies a lot week by week and day by day. Variance in just timing of the damn street lights is enough to make 30 seconds easily. You hit the stop light at the wrong time where I live - you’re sitting for a minute or more and that’s a big sway on a 15 minute commute.
  - evilotto 5y ago
    Yes, I only did the experiment for a few days. (it was 20-odd years ago so I don't remember the exact details, but I think I did it maybe 3 times in each direction, less than a week total.) Is there variance? Sure. That's kind of the point - any amount of time I actually saved was more than swallowed up by the variances. In the end, the tiny amount of time I could save was not worth the heightened stress level. But in the end, the experiment was for me and me alone. If you'd like to run your own more rigorous experiment and show how much time you can save by weaving through traffic, go right ahead; I've found what works better for me.
evilotto 5y ago
Are you suggesting that there's lots of time that a driver passes me over a double yellow line, flips me off, and I never see them again? Absolutely. TBH, I never think about them, because they don't affect me. Neither do the ones that I pull up behind, but those make me laugh and feel good.

skybrian 5y ago

Sure, but the rest of the post describes how they did a proper experiment.

bradlys 5y ago
Eh. Idk if I’d call it proper. It’s no different than the “proper” experiments that have a trial of 5 people to test a new drug. Problem is that they only did it for a few days. That’s not enough time for the margin of error to be very good. We all know traffic varies a lot week by week and day by day. Variance in just timing of the damn street lights is enough to make 30 seconds easily. You hit the stop light at the wrong time where I live - you’re sitting for a minute or more and that’s a big sway on a 15 minute commute.
- evilotto 5y ago
  Yes, I only did the experiment for a few days. (it was 20-odd years ago so I don't remember the exact details, but I think I did it maybe 3 times in each direction, less than a week total.) Is there variance? Sure. That's kind of the point - any amount of time I actually saved was more than swallowed up by the variances. In the end, the tiny amount of time I could save was not worth the heightened stress level. But in the end, the experiment was for me and me alone. If you'd like to run your own more rigorous experiment and show how much time you can save by weaving through traffic, go right ahead; I've found what works better for me.

evilotto 5y ago

Are you suggesting that there's lots of time that a driver passes me over a double yellow line, flips me off, and I never see them again? Absolutely. TBH, I never think about them, because they don't affect me. Neither do the ones that I pull up behind, but those make me laugh and feel good.