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The worse this war gets the stronger Ukraine has to be afterwards and the more and faster help it will get from the west. So the fear of Ukraine maybe looking m

The worse this war gets the stronger Ukraine has to be afterwards and the more and faster help it will get from the west. So the fear of Ukraine maybe looking more successful than Russia in 10 years or maybe joining NATO in 10 years now has become Ukraine having a better economic outlook than Russia after two weeks, and both EU and NATO memberships (or at least some form of defense guarantees equivalent to NATO) look quite likely even in the short term. The pain isn’t just economic. Everything he touches seems to have the completely opposite effect to what he says he wants, such as Ukraine/Finland/Sweden outside NATO. There is no logic.

pydry 5y ago
>The worse this war gets the stronger Ukraine has to be afterwards and the more and faster help it will get from the west I really dont think thats true. When Europe is spending billions to host millions of refugees already while inflation keeps climbing the appetite to spend yet more money to rebuild Ukraine is really going to pall. This will be a gift to Europe's far right and EU exit campaigns will spring up in response to the EU's attempts to distribute the pain and costs of this. Moreover, I think the west has an overly optimistic view of how well it is going to handle 10-20 million Ukrainian refugees long term given how much political strife was caused by 1 million Syrians. I really think it could break up the EU. I think this may even have been Putin's intention. NATO is also unlikely to fast track Ukraine's membership in a destroyed state. It'll probably wait.
- alkonaut 5y ago
  I'm optimistic about Europe. I think the division we have seen in the last decade with Brexit and Fidesz and Le Pen and Farage will shrink back, when people see Russia as a dangerous example of what it leads to, and hopefully see how fragile democracy is and how hard (and important) it can be to protect it, in Ukraine. The EU and Europe as a whole has really come together. I also think that the refugee situation will be a non-issue. I wouldn't have thought so even a month ago, but now I'm optimistic about that too. The "help from the west" I hope will come from e.g. that assets now frozen in London, Switzerland and elsewhere can be transfered to Ukraine as war reparations from Russia. I'm more pessimistic about the future when it comes to China/Taiwan, Russia (How do we even handle having a pariah state on par with Iran but the size of Russia on our doorstep?).

pydry 5y ago

>The worse this war gets the stronger Ukraine has to be afterwards and the more and faster help it will get from the west I really dont think thats true. When Europe is spending billions to host millions of refugees already while inflation keeps climbing the appetite to spend yet more money to rebuild Ukraine is really going to pall. This will be a gift to Europe's far right and EU exit campaigns will spring up in response to the EU's attempts to distribute the pain and costs of this. Moreover, I think the west has an overly optimistic view of how well it is going to handle 10-20 million Ukrainian refugees long term given how much political strife was caused by 1 million Syrians. I really think it could break up the EU. I think this may even have been Putin's intention. NATO is also unlikely to fast track Ukraine's membership in a destroyed state. It'll probably wait.

alkonaut 5y ago
I'm optimistic about Europe. I think the division we have seen in the last decade with Brexit and Fidesz and Le Pen and Farage will shrink back, when people see Russia as a dangerous example of what it leads to, and hopefully see how fragile democracy is and how hard (and important) it can be to protect it, in Ukraine. The EU and Europe as a whole has really come together. I also think that the refugee situation will be a non-issue. I wouldn't have thought so even a month ago, but now I'm optimistic about that too. The "help from the west" I hope will come from e.g. that assets now frozen in London, Switzerland and elsewhere can be transfered to Ukraine as war reparations from Russia. I'm more pessimistic about the future when it comes to China/Taiwan, Russia (How do we even handle having a pariah state on par with Iran but the size of Russia on our doorstep?).