> There is a reason that Russia occupied Crimea in 2014, then didn't move on to annex more (or all) of Ukraine until 2022: the US had a leader that was unpredic

> There is a reason that Russia occupied Crimea in 2014, then didn't move on to annex more (or all) of Ukraine until 2022: the US had a leader that was unpredictable and relatively aggressive from 2016-2020. With Biden replacing Trump, Putin began spooling up the Russian war machine for the attempt. I was mostly on the same page until this part. I don’t buy this. Like “Trump wouldn’t have let Afghanistan fall”. It’s being repeated often on the right without acknowledging the events of his admin that suggest otherwise or ignoring that administration’s possible contributions to the outcome. Trump’s public-comments and actions would have seemed to encourage rather than discourage Putin. Regardless, this explanation also feels too US-centric. Isn’t the election of Zelensky rather than a pro-Russian candidate among other things a likely reason for escalation?